000 AXNT20 KNHC 021745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 145 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 00N-12N, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment from 05N10N between 38W-50W. This convection is also related to the ITCZ. A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 53W from 18N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave was analyzed with axis along 71W from 06N-18N. After carefully revising latest scatterometer data, model guidance and satellite signature, this wave's axis will likely be repositioned for the 18 UTC map to 65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the wave's axis affecting the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. A west Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 81W from 02N-18N southward, is moving west at 10-15 kt. An upper-level low prevails across the west Caribbean enhancing scattered showers in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 12N between 75W-82W, enhanced by the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 00N14W to 07N31W. The ITCZ is from 07N31W to 07N41W. Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Wave section above, scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 10W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 26N82W to 22N89W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front mainly west of 88W. Surface ridging continues to build across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered over west Oklahoma near 37N101W. The front will remain nearly stationary and slowly weaken through Mon. The ridge will weaken as it shifts eastward through Wed night. Remnants of the front will move westward as a trough across the eastern and central Gulf Mon through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to moderate trades across the basin. An upper-level low is centered along 80W enhancing convection across the western half of the basin. Moderate trades will prevail across most of the area through mid- week. Large long-period northeast swell affecting the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean passages will subside through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front passes through 32N74W to 27N80W. To the east, an upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough that extends from 30N56W to 20N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with this trough between 50W-61W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front slightly southward tonight into Sun. Large long-period northeast swell to the northeast of the Bahamas will gradually subside though Sun afternoon. The front will slowly weaken through Wed as a trough tracks from E to W across the waters east of the Bahamas. $$ ERA