000 AXNT20 KNHC 021059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W, from 11N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related precipitation is near the tropical wave. Scattered strong from 06N to 09N between 40W and 49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 09N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is related just to the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic southward, moving W 10 knots. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 22N60W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 200 nm to the west of the eastern Caribbean Sea islands that cover the area from St. Vincent and the Grenadines to Saint Kitts and Nevis. Isolated moderate elsewhere between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 18N southward, moving W 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to Honduras. The tropical wave is moving toward the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is related to the trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that runs from Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Liberia near 06N13W, to 06N30W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 220 nm N of the monsoon trough from 23W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 280 nm S of the monsoon trough between 08W and 33W. A separate N-to-S oriented surface trough is along 44W/45W from 06N southward. No significant deep convective precipitation is related just to the surface trough. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N73W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong SE of the stationary front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N southward in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge has built into the area that is behind the cold front/stationary front. The ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current stationary front will remain nearly stationary, and weaken slowly through Monday. Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh N to NE winds across much of the basin during this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to Honduras. The 80W tropical wave is moving toward the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is related to the trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that runs from Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Numerous strong from 11N southward, between Colombia and 79W, including in the Gulf of Uraba. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 13N southward from 70W westward. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the area through mid-week. Large long period NE swell, affecting the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea passages, will subside during this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N73W to 31N75W, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from Cuba and Hispaniola northward from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N60W, about 400 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 43W and 70W. A surface trough is along 56W/57W, from 19N to 28N. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong within 250 nm E of the surface trough from 18N to 27N. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 16N to 30N between 35W and 63W. Reinforcing high pressure will push the current stationary front southward toward the NW Bahamas tonight and on Sunday. Large swell, NE of the Bahamas, will subside gradually during the this weekend. $$ mt