000 AXNT20 KNHC 020510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 11N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related precipitation is near the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is related just to the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 19N southward, moving W 10 knots. The wave is moving through the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is related to the 22N60W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center. Precipitation: isolated moderate between 60W and 70W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 20N southward, S of 19N, moving W 15 knots. The wave is moving through the western parts of Jamaica. Precipitation: Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to Honduras. The tropical wave is moving toward the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is related to the trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that runs from Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, TO 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W to 06N37W, 05N46W, and to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 75 nm to 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 37W and 45W. scattered moderate to strong within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough between 20W and 24W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere within 540 nm S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 38W eastward, and within 360 nm N of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 32N73W to 31N75W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 31N75W to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong SE of the line that passes through 27N82W 24N92W 19N95W. A surface ridge has built into the area that is behind the cold front/stationary front. The ridge passes through Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. The current frontal boundary is forecast to remain near its current position through Sunday. The western part of the front will move N, slowly, toward the W central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday. Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across much of the basin during this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are to the NW of the line that runs from the Windward Passage to NE Nicaragua. An upper-level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean, between the Bahamas and the Florida Keys, across Cuba, to Honduras. The 78W tropical wave is moving toward the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow that is related to the trough. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that runs from Haiti to east central coastal Nicaragua. The monsoon trough is along 08N/09N, from 76W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: Numerous strong from 10N southward, between Colombia and Panama, including in the Gulf of Uraba. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 12N southward from 76W westward. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected near the coast of Colombia, with mainly moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. Large long period NE swell, affecting the waters E of the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean passages, will subside slowly through the upcoming weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N73W to 31N75W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 31N75W to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into the south central Gulf of Mexico, and to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate NW of the line that passes through 32N70W to 26N80W at the coast of Florida. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N60W, about 400 nm to the NE of Puerto Rico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 43W and 70W. A surface trough is along 28N54W 25N56W 21N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 19N to 25N between 52W and 55W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N to 30N between 39W and 63W. The current frontal boundary will stall tonight and Saturday. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front southward to near the NW Bahama on Saturday night and Sunday. Large NE swell, affecting the area NE of the Bahamas, will subside gradually during the upcoming weekend. $$ mt