000 AXNT20 KNHC 011644 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1244 PM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Southwestern Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... Gales in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz and Coatzacoalcos are expected to end before 01/1800 UTC, with strong winds continuing into this evening. Maximum waves heights to 15 ft now will diminish to below 12 ft this evening. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 35W south of 11N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is well-marked in the 850-700 mb LPW product and in potential vorticity fields. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-10N between 35W-41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W S of 18N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 150 nm east of the wave axis from 05N-12N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65/66W S of 19N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted along and east of the wave axis from 12N-20N between 61W-66W, including over portions of the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W S of 19N, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated showers are along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 06N33W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N37W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-09N between 08W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Ft. Myers Florida to 23N89W, then continues as a stationary front to 21N92W to 17N94W. Isolated moderate convection is near the front west of 85W and south of 25N. The cold front will stall today and remain near its current position through Sun night. The western portion of the front will slowly lift N toward the W central Gulf Mon and Tue. Strong N to NE winds are within 120 nm N of the front, except for near gale to gale force winds in the western Bay of Campeche, which will diminish this afternoon. A 1032 mb surface high is over central Louisiana. Cool, dry air is spreading over the Gulf of Mexico behind the front. The high pressure will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough extends from the Florida Keys to the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are seen north of 17N between 77W- 84W. Isolated sea-breeze type showers and tstorms are along the east coast of Yucatan and Belize. In the far SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection south of 12N between 77W-84W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate trades over much of the central Caribbean, with gentle trades over the SE portion of the basin. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Sun, then winds over the S central Caribbean will become fresh to strong on Mon. Large long period NE swell affecting tropical north Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages will slowly subside through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N76W to Stuart Florida. A weak pre- frontal trough is over the NW Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 30 nm of the front from 27N-29N between 78W-80W. Isolated to scattered showers are along the pre- frontal trough. Meanwhile, a large upper-level low is spreading upper-level cyclonic flow from 18N-31N between 49W-63W. A surface trough is from 27N52W to 21N56W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 20N35W to 21N50W to 21N65W to 30N74W. As a result of those three features, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the area from 17N-29N between 44W-60W. A surface ridge axis extends from a 1032 mb high near 39N47W to Bermuda to 30N72W. High pressure N of the region will shift eastward ahead of the cold front that currently extends from 31N76W to Stuart Florida. The front will reach from 31N75W to Stuart Florida later today, then stall tonight and Sat. Reinforcing high pressure will push the front southward to near the northernmost Bahama Islands Sat night and Sun. Large NE swell affecting the area NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside Sat and Sun. $$ Hagen