000 AXNT20 KNHC 010540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 40.8N 31.3W at 01/0300 UTC or 260 nm NW of the Azores moving E at 18 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb and maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 65 nm of the NE quadrant. Rebekah is expected to continue moving eastward through Friday. The cyclone should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone early Friday. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Western Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning... A cold front stretches across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico, from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to the central Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. North to northwest gale force winds are S of 31N and W of 95W and seas of 15-23 ft. Gale force winds are also observed S of 22N and W of 94W with seas 14-19 ft. Gale force wind are forecast to persist through 01/1800 UTC. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring across the northern portion of the wave from 15N-19N between 46W-49W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W S of 18N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 12N-14N between 62W- 64W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W S of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 50 nm of the wave axis inland over NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N23W to 05N35W. The ITCZ continues from 05N35W to French Guiana near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N- 09N between 13W-40W. Thunderstorms are also moving off the coast of Guinea from 08N-10N and E of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is pushing across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. See the special features section for more details. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the front in the SE Gulf from 24N-26N and W of 85W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen adjacent to the front in the Bay of Campeche, S of 21N and E of 94W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds in the western Gulf, with gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche. Calm to light winds are ahead of the cold front in the eastern Gulf. The strong cold front will push SE to extend from near Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche late tonight, then from SW Florida to the NW Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. Strong gale force winds, with higher gusts follow the front. Seas will peak near 23 ft over the SW Gulf tonight. Winds W of the front will diminish to below gale force by late Friday morning. Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong N to NE winds across the basin this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The upper low over the NW Caribbean is beginning to drift northward into the Gulf. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Nicaragua from 11N-16N W of 81W. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are seen across southern Cuba and the NW Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate trades north of Colombia with light to gentle trades elsewhere. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Sunday. Large long period NE swell will continue propagating through the tropical north Atlantic waters and the Caribbean passages through Friday. Seas will gradually subside Friday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N34W to 20N57W to 21N66W to 30N74W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen adjacent to the front from 18N-26N between 46W-58W. A surface trough is seen in the Bahamas from 22N76W to 26N77W. Surface ridging extends across the eastern Atlantic. High pressure N of the region will shift eastward through Friday ahead of a cold front moving into the far NW waters late tonight. The front will reach from 31N76W to south Florida on Friday, then stall. Strong high pressure will push the front again by Saturday night, reaching from 31N72W to south Florida on Sunday. Large long period NE swell affecting the forecast area with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range will gradually subside from W to E late Saturday into Sunday. $$ AKR