000 AXNT20 KNHC 311046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 39.7N 36.7W at 31/0900 UTC or 465 nm WNW of the Azores. The estimated central pressure is 987 mb and estimated maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Rebekah is moving ENE at 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Rebekah is expected to continue moving ENE today and Little change in strength is expected today, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by this afternoon or tonight. Rebekah should become a post-tropical cyclone by this afternoon or evening. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from 30N92W to 22N98W. Gale force winds are ongoing NW of the front and seas building to 8-13 ft. As the front pushes eastward, gale- force winds will continue behind the front, mostly S of 21N and W of 94W. Seas are expected to reach 22 ft. These conditions will continue through early Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 45W S of 18N and is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen along the northern portion of the wave but no significant convection is noted. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W S of 17N and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern portion of the wave from 13N-15N. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W S of 19N and is moving W at 10 kt. Showers are noted along the ABC islands near the wave vicinity. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W S of 23N and is moving W at 10 kt. An upper level low is in the wave's environment which is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the northern vicinity of the wave from 19N-24N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 07N23W to 05N34W. The ITCZ continues from 05N34W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 02N- 08N between 21W- 41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also moving off the African coast from 05N- 10N and E of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the special features section for more details. Scattered moderate convection is seen adjacent to the front mostly from 21N-29N and W of 89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the central Bay of Campeche and along the Mexican coast. A surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to 24N91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted off the central Florida coast. The latest scatterometer data depicts gale force winds off the Texas coast and calm to light winds across the Gulf. The strong cold front will extend from the big bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight and from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Gale force winds to 45 kt and high seas to 22 ft are expected W of the front along the coast of Mexico. Winds will diminish below gale force by Friday morning. Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh north to northeast winds across the basin during the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered across western Cuba. See the tropical waves section for more details on convection associated with it. Showers are moving between southern Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 12N between 77W-83W. Isolated showers are also noted off the NE coast of Honduras and in the Gulf of Honduras. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela, and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are seen in the central Caribbean, otherwise gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Sunday. Large long period NE swell propagating through the tropical north Atlantic waters and the Caribbean passages will continue through Friday. Seas will gradually subside Friday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N33W to 20N49W to 22N67W. The front stalls from 22N67W northward into the western Atlantic near 31N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the front in addition to 100 nm behind the front between 33W-56W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds are seen across the Atlantic, N of 22N between 51W-72W. Strong winds are also seen behind the cold front N of 30N. High pressure north of the region will shift eastward through Friday ahead of a cold front moving into the southeast U.S. Large long period NE swell across the forecast area will gradually subside Friday and Saturday. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida late tonight, followed by fresh to locally strong NW-N winds. The front will reach from 31N75W to southern Florida Friday night, then stall and dissipate Saturday through Sunday. $$ AKR