000 AXNT20 KNHC 310540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 38.5N 38.8W at 31/0300 UTC or 556 nm W of the Azores. The estimated central pressure is 987 mb and estimated maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Rebekah is moving E at 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen within 100 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrant. Rebekah is expected to turn toward the east-northeast early Thursday. A turn back toward the east and east-southeast is anticipated on late Thursday and Friday. Little change in strength is anticipated for the next day or so, but gradual weakening is expected thereafter. Rebekah is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W to 26N97W. Gale force winds will develop NW of the front by 0600 UTC with seas building to 8-11 ft. As the front pushes eastward, gale-force winds will continue behind the front, mostly S of 21N and W of 95W. Seas are expected to reach 21 ft. These conditions will continue through early Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W S of 17N and is moving W at 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen along the wave but no significant convection is noted. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W S of 17N and is moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is currently associated with this wave. An east-central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W S of 20N and is moving W at 10 kt. Showers are currently moving across Puerto Rico and the northern portion of the wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W S of 22N and is moving W at 10 kt. An upper level low is in the wave's environment which is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the northern vicinity of the wave, ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W to 07N22W to 05N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough from 01N-07N between 20W-34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also moving off the coast of Sierra Leone from 06N-10N and E of 15W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the special features section for more details. Scattered moderate convection is seen adjacent to the front mostly from 26N-30N and W of 91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Upper level ridging in the eastern Gulf is keeping conditions tranquil. The latest scatterometer data depicts calm to light winds across the Gulf. Strong gale force winds and building seas of up to 20 or 21 ft will follow a strong cold front forecast to reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico later tonight, from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by Thursday afternoon, and from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force by Friday morning. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring fresh to locally strong northerly winds during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered across western Cuba. See the tropical waves section for more details on convection associated with it. Isolated thunderstorms are also moving south of the Cayman Islands and west of Jamaica. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the SW Caribbean due to enhancement from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, mostly S of 14N between 78W-83W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela, and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate winds are seen in the central Caribbean, otherwise gentle winds prevail across the rest of the basin. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Sunday. Large long period NE swell is propagating through the tropical north Atlantic waters tonight as well as all the Caribbean passages. This swell event, with seas in the 8 to 9 ft range, will subside by late Saturday or Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the eastern and central Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N34W to 19N53W to 25N72W. The front stalls from 25N72W northward into the western Atlantic near 32N79W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the front in addition to 100 nm behind the front between 48W-56W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh ENE winds are seen across the Atlantic, N of 22N between 51W-72W. Strong winds are also seen behind the cold front N of 30N. High pressure building southward across the region will support moderate to fresh winds through early Friday. Large long period NE swell will continue to move across the forecast waters and reach the Caribbean passages on Thursday evening before subsiding Saturday. Seas associated with this swell event are expected to peak at around 10 to 11 ft. A cold front will move off the coast of NE Florida late Thursday night followed by fresh to locally strong NW-N winds. The front is forecast to reach from 31N75W to SE Florida by Friday evening, then stall from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida Saturday night through Sunday. $$ AKR