000 AXNT20 KNHC 302347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...WARNING: Gale-Force winds in the Central Atlantic Ocean... A cold front passes through 32N34W, to 26N40W 22N50W 21N60W 24N70W 27N73W 28N77W. The front becomes stationary at 28N77W, and the front continues to 32N79W. A surface trough is within 120 nm to 150 nm to the north of the front from 60W eastward, and within 210 nm to the northeast of the front between 60W and 70W. Expect: N of 27N E of the cold front...SW WINDS 25 to 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet. These conditions are forecast for the next 6 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will push eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W to 26N97W on Wednesday night. Gale force winds are expected NW of the front with seas to 9 feet. The front will move eastward. The front's position will extend from 27N83W to 18.5N93W. Gale-force winds are forecast to be S of 21N and W of the front. The sea heights are expected to range from 12 feet to 18 feet. These conditions will continue through early Friday. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized and isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N to 20N between 40W and 50W. This wave is along the leading edge of a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized and isolated moderate from 08N to 15N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The southern end of an upper level trough reaches the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N southward, from 70W eastward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward, including Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N northward from Haiti westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 08N18W 05N25W and 05N30W. The ITCZ continues from 05N30W, to 10N41W, and then from 08N46W to 08N50W and 10N52W. Precipitation: Disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N southward from 40W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the Texas coastal waters, from 27N northward. The forecast is for the front to move eastward and southeastward, and in about 12 hours, help to create gale-force NW to N winds, to the NW of the front. The forecast position of the cold front is from 30N91W to 23N97W in 12 hours. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward from 87W westward. The current front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, as a cold front, followed by gale force winds. The front is forecast to reach from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thursday morning, and from near the Tampa Bay area to the central part of the SW Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night. At that time, the wind speeds are forecast to peak, ranging from 35 knots to 45 knots with sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 21 feet, in the SW Gulf of Mexico. The wind speeds are expected to diminish to less than gale-force by Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W/83W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 13N northward from 70W westward, including Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N northward from Haiti westward. The southern end of an upper level trough reaches the central sections of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 16N southward, from 70W eastward. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from the border of Colombia with Venezuela, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong from 08N to 10N between 76W and 78W near the Colombia/Panama border, in northern Colombia and its coastal waters from 10N to 11.5N between 73W and 75W, and in the southern part of Lake Maracaibo of Venezuela. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from eastern Honduras southward between 78W and 87W. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean Sea through Sunday. Reinforcing large NE swell is propagating through the tropical north Atlantic Ocean waters, today, as well as all the Caribbean Sea passages. This swell, with seas in the range of 8 feet to 9 feet, will subside on Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N34W, to 26N40W 22N50W 21N60W 24N70W 27N73W 28N77W. The front becomes stationary at 28N77W, and the front continues to 32N79W. A surface trough is within 120 nm to 150 nm to the north of the front from 60W eastward, and within 210 nm to the northeast of the front between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 180 nm to the east of the front from 25N northward, and within 60 nm to the E and SE of the front between 40W and 53W. Rainshowers are possible also, elsewhere, in the Atlantic Ocean, from 18N northward from 30W westward. GALE-FORCE WINDS: N of 27N E of the cold front...SW WINDS 25 to 35 knots. Sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet. High pressure building southward across the region will support moderate to fresh winds through early Friday. Large long period NE swell will continue to move across the forecast waters and reach the Caribbean Sea passages on Thursday evening, before subsiding on Saturday. The sea heights that will be associated with this swell event are expected to peak in the range from 10 feet to 11 feet. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Friday. The front will stall from 31N74W to West Palm Beach, Florida, from Friday evening through Sunday. $$ mt