000 AXNT20 KNHC 301046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 646 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N38W to 23N52W. Gale force winds are ongoing N of 24N and east of the front to 38W with seas 15-18 ft. These conditions will continue through Wednesday afternoon. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Western Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front will push eastward across the western Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W to 26N97W on Wednesday night. Gale force winds are expected NW of the front with seas to 9 ft. As the front moves farther east, it will stretch from 27N83W to 19N93W with gale force winds S of 21N and W of the front. Seas are expected to be 12-18 ft. These conditions will continue through early Friday. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W S of 16N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is along the leading edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern portion of the wave from 11N-18N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 54W S of 13N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is also well depicted in satellite imagery. There is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. An eastern Carribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W S of 20N and is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the central portion of the wave from 13N-15N. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends it axis along 80W S of 21N and is moving west at 10 kt. An upper-level low is in the wave's environment combining with it to enhance convection north of 17N. The monsoon trough extends along 09N. This is also enhancing convection with the wave mainly south of 11N between 77W- 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 09N43W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 09N44W to 09N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough and part of the ITCZ from 02N- 08N between 15W- 37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends across the northern Gulf along the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to the Mississippi coast near 30N89W. The front continues across SE Louisiana and enters the NW Gulf near 29N92W to just off the SE Texas coast near 29N95W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front mainly north of 28N between 85W-91W. A surface trough is over the NW Gulf from 27N94W to 29N91W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the central and southern Gulf mostly from 22N-28N between 86W-90W. A trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 19N92W to 22N90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in the north- central Gulf with gentle winds elsewhere. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf early Thursday, extend from the big bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday night and from central Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday morning. Gale force northerly winds and building seas up to 17 ft are expected W of the front along the coasts of Texas and Mexico Thursday and Friday. Marine conditions will improve significantly Friday night and Saturday in the basin as the front stalls and weakens. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low centered between Cuba and Jamaica is leading to scattered moderate convection across the Windward Passage. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Honduras and the central Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds north of Colombia with moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean through Friday night. Reinforcing large N-NE swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and all Caribbean passages tonight through Friday. Seas will build to near 8 ft in the Mona and Anegada Passages. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N32W to 22N44W to 20N61W. The next cold front extends from 31N38W to 23N51W to 30N76W. Between these two fronts, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 21N- 31N between 31W- 43W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen east of the Leeward Islands from 14N- 16N between 57W-61W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale force winds in the area discussed in the Gale Warning section in addition to fresh northerly winds N of 23N between 29W- 57W. Reinforcing high pressure will build southward across the region through Thursday with fresh winds. Large long period N-NE swell moving into the NE waters today will reach the SE waters and NE Caribbean on Thursday, with seas expected to peak at around 10 to 11 ft Wednesday night through Friday. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida on Friday, and stall from 31N75W to central Florida Friday night and Saturday. $$ AKR