000 AXNT20 KNHC 300537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N41W to 24N54W to 30N73W, then transitions to stationary north of the area. Gale force winds are expected N of 29N and east of the front to 40W, with seas 12-16 ft. These conditions will through Wednesday morning. By 30/1800 UTC, a stationary front is expected to extends from 31N37W to 24N48W. A new cold front will extend from 31N45W to 27N51W to 29N57W. Gale- force winds are forecast N of 29N and east of the stationary front, with seas ranging between 12-17 ft. These conditions will continue through early Thu. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 44W S of 16N and is moving west at about 10-15 kt. This wave is in the leading edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the northern portion of the wave from 14N-17N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W S of 13N and is moving west at about 10 kt. This wave is also well depicted in satellite imagery. There is no significant convection currently associated with this wave. An eastern Carribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 65W S of 19N and is moving west at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the central portion of the wave from 14N-15N. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends it axis along 79W S of 21N and is moving west at 10 kt. An upper-level low is in the wave's environment combining with it to enhance convection north of 18N. The monsoon trough extends along 09N. This is also enhancing convection with the wave mainly south of 13N between 77W- 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N31W. The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to 10N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N45W to 08N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 02N-09N between 18W- 29W, and within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the SE Louisiana coast near 29N89W to just off the middle Texas coast near 28N96W. Scattered moderate convection prevails in the vicinity of the front mainly north of 27N between 87W-92W. A surface trough is over the central Gulf from 27N93W to 29N89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the central and southern Gulf mostly from 23N-26N between 85W-89W. Isolated thunderstorms are also in the Bay of Campeche. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds in the north-central Gulf with gentle winds elsewhere. The stationary front will continue producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf which may lead to locally gusty winds and rough seas. The trough will weaken as it lifts northwestward to the NW Gulf on Wednesday. The scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through late Wednesday. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wednesday night. It will quickly move eastward toward SE Louisiana to Tampico early Thu, then the eastern Florida Panhandle to inland Minatitlan, Mexico by early Thursday evening. By early Friday, the front will stretch from central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche. The front will weaken as it reaches from near SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche early Fri evening. Gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected west of the front over most of the western Gulf waters Wednesday night through early Friday. Winds and seas will decrease Friday and Friday night. A secondary cold front will sweep across the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday night increasing the northerly winds to fresh to strong speeds over most locations. Seas will build over the SW Gulf and in the far W- central Gulf late Saturday through Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low centered between Cuba and Jamaica is leading to scattered moderate convection across southern Cuba and the Windward Passage. Additionally, isolated thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Honduras. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly winds north of Colombia with moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle trades prevail elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong trades near the coast of Colombia will diminish Wednesday afternoon to mainly fresh speeds. Otherwise, moderate trades will remain across the central and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night, while gentle trades remain over the northwestern Caribbean. Large long-period northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean Passages will subside early tonight. A large set of large north- northeast swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and northeast Caribbean passages Wednesday through Friday and begin to slowly early on Saturday through Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information about the Gale Warning currently in effect and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N31W to 23N45W to 21N61W. Between this stationary front and the cold front discussed in the Gale Warning section, scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 22N-31N between 32W- 44W. Scattered thunderstorms are also seen east of the Leeward Islands from 14N-16N between 57W-60W. Surface ridging prevails across the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 35N10W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong to gale force winds in the area discussed in the Gale Warning section in addition to fresh northerly winds N of 23N between 29W-57W. Stronger high pressure is building southward across the western part of the area. This will allow mainly fresh northeast to east winds across most of the area through Wednesday. A surge of fresh to strong northeast to east winds will spread from E to W across the eastern part of the area from Wednesday evening through Thursday night. A weakening cold front will move over the far northwest part of the area late Thursday night into Friday. It will reach east-central Florida Friday night, then become stationary through Saturday night. Large long-period northeast swell propagating through the waters S of 25N and east of the Bahamas will slowly subside through early Tuesday evening. A large set of long-period north to northeast swell will begin to propagate through the northeast forecast waters on Wednesday, and reach the southeast waters and northeastern Caribbean beginning late Wednesday night and through Thursday. This swell will significantly build seas over these waters Thursday night through Friday morning before they begin to gradually subside through Saturday night. $$ AKR