000 AXNT20 KNHC 290535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 AM EDT Tue Oct 29 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A 1000 mb surface low is expected to move to near 31N50W by early Tuesday, with associated cold front extending from the low to 29N57W to beyond 31N70W. Gale force winds are expected north of 29N between 50W-53W, with seas ranging between 13-16 ft. These conditions will continue through early Wednesday. See the latest High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W S of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is in the leading edge of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass and is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the wave axis from 05N- 15N . A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 61W S of 18N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also depicted well in satellite imagery. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the northern portion of the wave from 15N-17N in addition to the southern Windward Islands from 11N-12N between 61W-63W. A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 75W is moving west at 10 kt. A well defined upper level low centered over Hispaniola is enhancing the area surrounding this wave. At this time, scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave north of 18N across the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 08N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N40W to 10N59W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N-07N and E of 23W to the coast of Africa. Scattered convection is also noted along and north of the ITCZ from 07N-11N between 40W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A deep layered ridge continues to sit across the Gulf as an upper level low sits over the Yucatan Peninsula. At the surface, a stationary front continues to linger across the northern Gulf of Mexico, extending from the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to 25N93W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the upper low, is noted along and south of this boundary from 23N-28N between 85W- 93W. Otherwise, fair conditions prevail across the rest of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate ESE winds in the NW Gulf and moderate easterly winds in the SE Gulf. Calm to light winds prevail elsewhere. Relatively weak high pressure across the area will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf through Tuesday as the remnants of a front shift northwestward across the area to inland the northwest and north- central Gulf Wednesday. The upper level low will weaken as it moves to the northwest Yucatan on Wednesday, and the associated convective activity will shift to the central Gulf. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf early Thursday, then quickly push southeastward to central Florida and extend into the eastern Bay of Campeche early Friday. It will weaken as it reaches SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Friday night. Near gale to gale force northerly winds will follow in behind the front across much of the west- central waters and along and offshore the coast of Veracruz. The front will stall and continue to weaken through Saturday night. Winds and seas will subside behind the front Friday through Saturday night, except in the Bay of Campeche where strong northerly winds will remain. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is centered over Hispaniola enhancing convection Haiti and the Windward Passage. Another upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, enhancing convection across the NW Caribbean, from 16N-21N and W of 86W. A relatively dry air is noted across the remainder of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades north of Colombia and Venezuela with moderate trades across the central basin. Gentle trades prevail elsewhere. The gradient associated with high pressure located over the western Atlantic will allow for fresh to locally strong trades to occur along and near the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Tuesday morning before diminishing to fresh speeds in the afternoon. These winds will pulse back up to fresh to locally strong speeds Tuesday evening before diminishing early on Wednesday. Otherwise, moderate trades will remain across the central and eastern Caribbean through Saturday night, while gentle trades remain over the northwestern Caribbean. Large long- period northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean Passages will slowly subside through early Tuesday evening. A large set of large north-northeast swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and northeast Caribbean passages Wednesday through Friday and begin to slowly subside Friday night through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details about the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N77W to the northeast Florida coast near 30N81W. Showers are seen along the front. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near 29N67W. A cold front continues to sweep across the central and eastern Atlantic, entering the area near 31N28W and extends westward to 26N39W to 25N60W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southwesterly winds N of 27N between 23W-63W. Relatively weak high pressure will maintain moderate east to southeast winds across the region through early Wednesday before stronger high pressure builds in from the north on Wednesday and Thursday. This will increase the winds to mainly fresh speeds across the area. A weakening cold front will move over the far northwest part of the area late Thursday night into Friday. It will reach east-central Florida Friday night, then become stationary through Saturday night. Large long- period northeast swell propagating through the waters S of 25N and east of the Bahamas will slowly subside through early Tuesday evening. A large set of long-period north to northeast swell will begin to propagate through the waters of the northeast part of the area on Wednesday, and reach the southeast waters and northeastern Caribbean beginning late Wednesday night and through Thursday. This swell will significantly build seas over these waters Thursday night through Friday morning before gradually subsiding through Saturday night. $$ AKR