000 AXNT20 KNHC 281749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo... Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo is centered near 46.8N 17.7W at 28/1500 UTC or 630 nm NE of Lajes Air Base in The Azores moving N at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the center. See the last NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. High Seas Forecasts are issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and on the web at: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/ metarea2. High Seas Forecasts are also issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at: metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high- seas-forecast/. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A 1001 mb low is expected to drop south to 31N51W in the central Atlantic on Tuesday 29/1200 UTC. The low will bring gales over forecast waters within 180 nm SW semicircle and NW quadrant of low. Seas of 13-16 ft are forecast. See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N32W to 10N35W to 01N36W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 31W-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W from 05N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 57W-62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W from 07N-21N, moving W at 15 kt. A large upper level low is centered near 16N71W. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-21N between 67W-72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 09N34W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 09N38W to 07N50W to 10N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, isolated moderate convection is noted from 01N-08N between 07W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-10N between 47W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 28/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Daytona Beach Florida to New Port Richey Florida, then continues as a warm front to 26.5N90W to 24N95W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N93W. A surface trough is also over the SE Gulf of Mexico from 25.5N87W to 23N90W to 20N90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SE Gulf from 22N-27N between 85W-91W. Over the northern Gulf, northwest of the warm front, deep-layered ridging and dry air prevail along with gentle winds. Gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow will prevail across the Gulf through Tue as the remnants of an old front moves NW across the basin and inland Wed. A strong upper level low pressure system across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting very active thunderstorm activity across the central and SE Gulf and will shift northward through late Tue. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Thu, then push SE to extend from central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche by Fri night. Gale force winds are expected W of the front along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 73W. See above. An upper level low is centered S of Hispaniola near 16N71W. Another upper level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N90W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and upper lows, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N-13N between 78W-85W in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Relatively dry air is found over the Lesser Antilles as well as the area from 73W-79W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of NW Venezuela and off N Colombia, from 11N-14N between 70W-75W. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Tue as Atlc high pres settles just SW of Bermuda. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will generally prevail across most of the Caribbean through Fri night. Large long period NE swell moving through the regional Atlantic and into the Caribbean Passages will slowly subside through Tue night. Reinforcing large N-NE swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and NE Caribbean passages Wed through Thu and will reach the Venezuelan coast. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details about Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 32N77W to Daytona Beach Florida. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm SE of the front. A 1020 mb high is near 29N66W. A cold front enters the area near 32N32W to 27N40W to 25N53W to 27N60W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 25N between 24W-33W. A 1020 mb high is near 32N13W. High pressure over the Atlantic SW of Bermuda will maintain moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tue before reinforcing high pres builds in from the N to freshen the wind flow area wide. Large long period NE swell is peaking at 8-10 feet across the waters S of 25N and E of 72W today, and will slowly subside through late Tue. Reinforcing long period N-NE swell will begin to move into the NE waters Wed and reach the SE waters and NE Caribbean Thu, with seas expected to peak at 10 to 11 ft Thu night through Fri morning. $$ Formosa