000 AXNT20 KNHC 281109 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 709 AM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Pablo rapidly weakening in the far NE Atlantic... Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 46.6N 17.5W at 28/0900 UTC, or about 405 nm WNW of the NW tip of Spain, moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Significant convection is no longer occurring within 60 nm of the center. A slow northward motion is expected to continue until Pablo dissipates Tuesday morning. Pablo should transition to a post-tropical cyclone later this morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A low pressure system is expected to drop south of 31N over the central Atlantic near 50W on Tuesday. The low will then move eastward through early Wed. The low will bring gales to the area north of 28N between 35W-55W Tuesday into early Wed. See the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis that extends from 19N34W to 01N41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07.5N-11N between 31W-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 56.5W-58.5W. A Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72/73W from 08N- 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A large upper-level low is centered near 16N70W. Isolated moderate showers are from 16N-22N between 68W-75W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W from 13N-25N, moving NW around 5 kt. This wave, interacting with an upper-level low that is centered near northern Belize, is producing scattered moderate convection over the southern Gulf of Mexico from 21N-25N between 86W-90W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere from 16N-25N between 82W-91W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 08N30W to 08N36W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N41W to 07N49W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, isolated moderate convection is noted from 01N-04N between 13W-32W. Isolated showers are from 07N-11N between 42W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 28/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from near Daytona Beach Florida to just north of Clearwater Florida, then continues as a warm front from 28N83W to 25N90W to 22N93W to a 1011 mb low near 19N93W. A tropical wave is also over the SE Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the SE Gulf of Mexico south and east of the warm front, as well as along the warm front and extending to within 90 nm NW of the warm front. Over the northern Gulf of Mexico, northwest of the warm front, deep- layered ridging and dry air prevail along with gentle winds. The warm front will lift north into the southern United States by Tue night. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Thu, then push SE to extend from central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche by Fri night. Gale force winds are possible W of the front along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level cyclonic flow extends over the Caribbean between 63W-79W. Another upper-low is centered near northern Belize. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves and upper-lows described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 80W-84W in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough. Relatively dry air is found over the Lesser Antilles as well as the area from 73W-79W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the central Caribbean, with strong trades near the coast of NW Venezuela and off N Colombia, from 11N-14N between 70W-75W. Fresh to locally strong trades are expected along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through Tue. Otherwise, moderate trade winds will generally prevail across most of the Caribbean through Fri night. Large long period NE swell affecting the Atlantic Passages will slowly subside through Tue night. A reinforcing round of large N to NE swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and through the NE Caribbean passages Wed through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details about Tropical Storm Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 32N80W to Daytona Beach Florida to near Clearwater, Florida. Isolated moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 75W-79.5W. A 1019 mb high near 30N66W extends surface ridging over the area from 23N-31N between 65W-75W. A cold front enters the area near 32N35W and extends westward to 27N46W to 28N62W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30.5N east of the cold front between 28W-33W. A surface trough is from 28N38.5W to 23N44W, with isolated showers well east of the trough. Scattered light showers and high cirrus clouds are north of 29N between 20W-24W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 27N22W, and a 1015 mb surface high is near 21N41W, with surface ridging in between the two highs. High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Thu night. Large long-period north swell will continue to affect nearly the entire Atlantic basin from the Equator to 32N between 20W-70W through late this week. For the forecast area west of 65W, northeast swell will maintain seas between 8 and 10 feet for the waters S of 25N and E of 72W this morning, then seas will subside to below 8 feet by sunrise on Tue as the swell decay. More long period NE swell will cause seas E of the Bahamas to build to between 8 and 11 feet by Thu night. $$ Hagen