000 AXNT20 KNHC 271812 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 212 PM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Pablo becomes a Hurricane in the far Northeastern Atlantic... Hurricane Pablo is centered near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 18.3 West at 27/1500 UTC, or about 535 nm NE of Lajes Air Base in the Azores, moving NNE at 27 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Scattered moderate convection is present within 30 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 50 nm S semicircle. A turn toward the north and northwest and an additional decrease in forward speed are expected tonight and Monday. Pablo remains a small tropical cyclone. Weakening is forecast to begin this afternoon, and Pablo is expected to become post-tropical on Monday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 32W from 16N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 02N-11N between 30W-36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted in satellite imagery and latest ASCAT pass. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 51W-56W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 68W south of 20N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave continues to be very weak and difficult to track. The wave has scattered showers near the vicinity of the wave from 14N-17N between 65W-67W. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W south of 23N, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen 80 nm to the west of the wave and 120 nm to the east. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low centered right over the wave near 16N86W over the W Caribbean. The northern part of this wave is forecast to move NW toward the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday, enhancing showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to 07N31W to a 1012 mb low near 05N34W to 04N36W. The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-07N between 20W-29W in the monsoon trough and few showers in the vicinity of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from 29N83W to 26N85W, then continues as a stationary front to 26N85W to 22N90W to 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is in the SE Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between 91W- 94W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 45 nm along the boundary from 23N-29N between 82W-86W. A 1015 mb surface high is over the western Gulf of Mexico near 23N94W. Gentle winds are over the W Gulf west of 88W and north of 22N. Fresh to strong N winds are in the southeastern Bay of Campeche just NW of the stationary front. Elsewhere, isolated showers are west of South Florida and the Florida Keys. A tropical wave in the NW Caribbean is spreading cloudiness and showers into the Yucatan Channel. A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the western Gulf through Mon as the front drifts N and dissipates. Active weather will shift NW across the Yucatan Channel and into the SE Gulf this afternoon and tonight. Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong northerly winds, with the possibility of these winds reaching gale force late Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low near 16N85W is enhancing the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also seen over the far SW Caribbean Sea in association to the monsoon trough and the upper level low to the west, mainly south of 16N between 75W-82W. ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean and fresh SE winds to the west of Jamaica, with moderate winds elsewhere, but gentle in the far SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Tue, while fresh to locally strong trades prevail along the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Very active weather associated with an upper level low will shift NW across the Yucatan Channel and into the SE Gulf of Mexico this afternoon through tonight. Large long period NE swell building across central Atlantic and into the Leeward Islands will peak tonight through Mon morning and then begin to slowly subside Tue. Reinforcing large N-NE swell will propagate through the tropical north Atlantic waters and through the NE Caribbean passages Wed through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Deep-layered ridging covers the western Atlantic north of 20N between 62W-78W. Some isolated moderate convection is seen from 28N-30N between 78W-79W, including the western portion of the Old Bahamas Chanel. Farther E, a cold front extends from 31N19W to 30N20W, then continues as a stationary front to 18N39W. A shear line continues from 18N39W to 17N56W to 20N61W. Isolated moderate convection is in the vicinity of the stationary front and the shear line. Another area where scattered showers are seen is north of 25N-30N between 27W-41W due to a broad area of upper- level diffluence. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Wed night. Large long-period northeast swell will build seas over the southeastern part of the area E of 70W Sun through early Mon. A weak cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon, then lift back as a warm front Tue night. $$ NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER