000 AXNT20 KNHC 270548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Sun Oct 27 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Pablo now accelerating away from the Azores... Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 38.2N 22.6W at 27/0300 UTC, or about 125 nm ENE of Sao Miguel Island in the Azores, moving NE at 25 kt. Maximum sustained winds are near 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle and 60 nm S semicircle. A turn toward the north- northeast and north is expected today, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. The small core of Pablo will continue to move away from the eastern Azores early this morning. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but slow weakening is forecast to begin by tonight. Pablo is forecast to become post-tropical tonight or early Monday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 19N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection prevails from 03N-10N between 25W-37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 52W from 16N southward, moving W around 10 kt. This wave is well-depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers are from 10N-13N between 48W-53W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 64/65W south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave continues to be very weak and difficult to track. The wave has had no convection at all for the past 2 to 3 days. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 85W from 08N-23N, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave axis from 12N-22N between 77W-81W. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low over the W Caribbean near 16N85W. Isolated moderate convection is over NW Nicaragua, S Honduras and E El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N22W to 06N31W to 07N38W to 09N43W. The ITCZ extends from 09N43W to 10N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the African coast from 06N- 11N, and within 180 nm of the monsoon trough between 38W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 27/0300 UTC, a cold front stretches from 31N86W to 27N86W to 25N87W, and continues as a stationary front to 21N90W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the stationary front from 17N-22N between 89W-93W. Surface high pressure is building in over the western Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are over the W Gulf west of 90W and north of 22.5N. Fresh to strong N winds are in the southeastern Bay of Campeche just NW of the stationary front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is seen over South Florida and the Florida Keys. A tropical wave in the NW Caribbean is spreading cloudiness and light showers into the Yucatan Channel. The Gulf of Mexico cold front will become stationary today. The stationary front will dissipate Monday as it lifts some northward. Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong northerly winds, with the possibility of these winds reaching gale force late Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the two tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea. An upper-level low near 16N85W is enhancing the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section. Isolated moderate to strong convection is also seen over N Colombia. Dry conditions cover the east Caribbean east of 72W. Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean and fresh SE winds to the west of Jamaica, with moderate winds elsewhere, but gentle in the far SW Caribbean. Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through Wed night. Large long-period northeast swell will reach the Leeward Islands early this morning, then begin to slowly subside by Tue. Yet another batch of northeast swell will propagate through the northern and central tropical north Atlantic waters late Tue through Wed night. The swell will not really abate much in between these two events. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Deep-layered ridging covers the western Atlantic north of 20N between 50W and Florida. A 1021 mb surface high is near 28N60W. Some isolated moderate convection is seen near South Florida and the Florida Keys as well as from 27N-31N between 77W-79W. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N21N to 24N27W to 20N33W to 17N41W. A shear line continues from 17N41W to 16N48W to 18N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm SE of the cold front to the east of 23W. Isolated showers are near the remainder of the cold front and shear line. Another area where scattered showers are seen is north of 27.5N between 34W-44W due to upper- level diffluence in the area. Large long-period N swell of 8-10 ft are currently affecting waters from 17N-32N between 26W-60W. Long period NE swell up to 6 ft will affect Atlantic waters between 65W-70W today through early Monday. The swells will subside somewhat on Tuesday, but the large NE swells will return late Wed into Thu due to another strong, large low pressure system north of the forecast area over the north-central Atlantic. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the western Atlantic through Wed night. A weak cold front will move over the far northwest waters Monday, then lift back as a warm front Tuesday night. $$ Hagen