000 AXNT20 KNHC 270000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Pablo to pass near or over the Azores Tonight... Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 36.3N 25.6W at 26/2100 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Santa Maria Island In The Azores moving NE at 22 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 37N between 20W-25W. A turn toward the north- northeast and north is expected on Sunday. Pablo is likely to become extratropical late Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 29W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers prevail from 07N-10N between 25W- 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W from 15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered showers are from 10N-15N between 48W-53W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 62W south of 18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has become very weak and difficult to track. The wave is in a dry environment therefore, no convection is present in the wave's area at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W from 23N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis between 78W-82W. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low over that prevails over the W Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 08N46W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 220 nm south and 120 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from 30N88W to 23N89W, then transition to a stationary front from that point to the Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. A squall line is analyzed ahead of the front 31N87W to 27N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the fronts/squall line. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front, with moderate to fresh northerly winds. Behind the front, fresh north winds will gradually diminish into Sun as the front weakens and approaches an Apalachicola Florida to the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will stall Mon and lift north and dissipate Tue. The next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night, followed by strong northerly winds, with the possibility of these winds to reach gale-force late Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the west Caribbean. An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 16N84W enhancing the convection near and east of the tropical wave. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades over the central Caribbean between 66W-76W and within 90 nm east of the tropical wave axis, while moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through mid-week. The tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland Central America on Sun. The tropical wave west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through late Sun, then across the central Caribbean through Tue, and the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. Large long-period northeast swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sun, then begin to slowly subside through Tue. Yet another batch of northeast swell will propagate through the northern and central tropical north Atlantic waters late Tue through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the far west Atlantic mainly west 78W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N23W to 17N43W, then transitions to a shear line from that point to 23N66W. Scattered showers prevail along the front/shear line. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N56W. Latest ASCAT continue to depict a northwesterly flow behind the front with moderate to fresh winds. The high pressure will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through mid-week. Large long- period northeast swell will build seas over the southeastern part of the area E of 70W Sun through early Mon. A weak cold front will move over the far northwest waters Mon, then lift back as a warm front Tue night. $$ ERA