756 AXNT20 KNHC 261800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Oct 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 12000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Storm Pablo to pass near or over the Azores Tonight... As of 26/1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.2N 28.1W or 205 nm SSW of the Azores moving E at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and north on Sunday. On the forecast track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the eastern Azores tonight. Pablo is expected to become extratropical on Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 25W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 49W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery. Isolated showers are within 130 nm of the wave axis from 08N-13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 61W south of 18N, moving W around 15 kt, but the wave has become very weak and difficult to track. The wave is in a dry environment and no convection is present in the wave's area at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 82W from 23N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 14N-20N between 78W-83W. This activity is being enhanced by an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean that is to the west of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N46W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 220 nm S and 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front stretches from southern Louisiana from 29N89W to north of the Yucantan Peninsula near 22N91W, then transition to a stationary front at that point to the Bay of Campeche to 18N92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the station front from 18N-22N between 90W-95W and along the cold front near the offshore waters of the Florida Panhandle near 27N30N between 85W-87W. Scattered showers are also seen near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Strong northwest to north winds west of the front will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by this evening as the cold front begins to weakens while reaching from near Panama City, Florida to 25N89W and to along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The cold front will continue to weaken as it reaches from Apalachee Bay to near 25N87W and to inland the western part of the Yucatan Peninsula Sun morning, then become stationary through Mon evening. It will then lift back to the N as a warm front Mon through Tue evening. High pressure will build west- southwest across the area Mon night through Wed night. Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Wed night followed by strong winds northerly, with the possibility of these winds reaching gale force late Wed night into Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave along 80W. An upper-level low is centered over the NW Caribbean near 16N84W enhancing the convection near and east of the tropical wave. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades over the central Caribbean between 66W-76W with moderate winds elsewhere. Moderate trades are expected across most of the Caribbean through Wed night. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move inland Central America on Sun. A second tropical wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean through Sun evening, then across the central Caribbean through Tue evening and the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. Large long-period northeast swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sun, then begin to slowly subside through Tue. Yet another batch of northeast swell will propagate through the northern and central tropical north Atlantic waters late Tue through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. An area of high precipitable water content extends across the Old Bahama Channel. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen near the coast of Florida from 26N-28N between 78W-80W. To the east, a cold front extends from 30N25W to 23N36W, then continues as a stationary front to 21N44W. Latest ASCAT continue to depict a northwesterly flow behind the front with moderate to fresh winds. A surface trough extends 200 nm southeast of the front from 25N27W to 17N42W, then transitions to a shear line at that point to 22N65W. The shear line is noticiable in the visible sat and ASCAT pass this morning with a 20 to 25 kt NE wind to the NE and light 5 to 10 kt S of the line. Scattered showers are seen along the boundary. High pressure over the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Wed night. Large long-period northeast swell will build seas over the southeastern part of the area E of 70W Sun through early Mon. A weak cold front will move over the far northwest waters early next week, then lift back as a warm front on Wed. $$ MMTorres