311 AXNT20 KNHC 252356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Depression Seventeen is now T.S. Olga... Tropical Storm Olga is centered near 26.3N 93.2W at 25/2100 UTC or 230 nm S of Lake Charles Louisiana moving NNE at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 22N-30N between 88W-94W. Olga is expected to merge with a cold front and become a post-tropical low with gale-force winds during the next few hours before the center reaches the Gulf coast. On the forecast track, the center of Olga should move over the northern Gulf coast late tonight or early Saturday and then move through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys later Saturday through Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front extends across the western Gulf of Mexico from a 1011 mb surface low near 30N93W to 26N94W to 21N94W to 20N96W. Gale-force winds are presently NW of the front. The front will continue to push rapidly southward through the SW Gulf tonight. These conditions are expected through early Saturday. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Tropical Storm Pablo has formed across the east Atlantic... Tropical Storm Pablo is centered near 35.8N 32.2W at 25/2100 UTC or 280 nm WSW of the Azores moving ESE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days to the northeast of the Azores. On this track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores this weekend. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 45W- 50W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W from 05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, therefore no convection is present in the wave's area at this time. A west-central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 79W from 21N south, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted between 71W-85W. This activity is enhanced by large scale upper-level cyclonic flow currently in the area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 11N42W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is noted along these boundaries at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on the Tropical Storm Olga and the Gale Warning currently in effect. The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of 88W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over this area. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb surface low near 30N93W to 26N94W to 21N94W to 20N96W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails to the east of the front and T.S. Olga between 88W-94W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin. Gale force winds W of the front will subside by early Saturday. The front will then reach 30N89W to eastern Bay of Campeche Saturday morning, then begin to stall from the central Florida Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche Sunday morning. Weak high pressure will move to the N central Gulf coast Monday as the front dissipates across NE portions. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An upper level low is centered over the west-central Caribbean enhancing the convection near the tropical wave. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds within 90 nm east of the tropical wave axis, while moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the basin. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Tue night. A tropical wave over the Caribbean near 79W will continue to produce very active weather as it moves W and reaches Central America Sunday. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles tonight and approach Puerto Rico by Saturday night. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sunday, and continue through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about T.S. Pablo and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 28N80W. No significant convection is related to this feature at this time. To the east, another stationary front extends across the east Atlantic from 31N27W to 21N47W. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm east of the front. High pressure across the NW Atlantic will generally maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through mid week. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W early Sunday through Monday. $$ ERA