000 AXNT20 KNHC 251817 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 217 PM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Depression Seventeen... Tropical Depression Seventeen is located over the west Gulf of Mexico near 25.6N 94.4W on 25/1500 UTC, moving N at 13 kt. T.D. Seventeen has max sustained winds 30 kt gust 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 20N-28N between 89W-94W. A motion toward the north-northeast at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should move across the NW Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and then move over the northern Gulf coast tonight or Saturday morning. The cyclone is then expected to merge with a cold front and become a post- tropical low with gale-force winds tonight before the center reaches the Gulf coast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. For more information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front has reached the Gulf of Mexico and extends South into the Bay of Campeche near 22N96W. Gale force winds are presently NW of the front. The front will push rapidly southward into the SW Gulf today. Northerly gale force winds are expected to continue W of the front through tonight. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is very well defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-16N between 20W-26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 42W-46W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 20N51W, moving W at 5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and no showers are seen. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 21N south, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 71W-78W. Convection is also being enhanced by large scale upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 12N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 10N41W, then W of the tropical wave near 09N46W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 27W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on the Tropical Depression Seventeen. The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of 88W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over the SE Gulf. The cold front extends from a 1011 mb near 17N94W south to 22N97W. To the east, warm front extends 29N91W and along the northern Gulf coast to the FL Panhandle. Further east of the front, a 1009 mb low pressire is now Tropical Depression Seventeen. A strong cold front has blasted off the Texas and NE Mexican coasts this morning, with northerly gales spreading southward behind it. Well defined low pressure ahead of the front has formed into Tropical Depression Seventeen, near 25.6N 94.4W at 1500 UTC, 1006 mb moving N at 14 kt. The Tropical Depression will move northward and into SW Louisiana coastal waters early this evening, and begin to merge with the cold front as it moves N-NE and inland across central Louisiana tonight. The cold front is expected to reach from 30N92W to 18N95W this evening, with gales spreading to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, before gales gradually diminish overnight. The front will then reach 30N89W to eastern Bay of Campeche Sat morning, then begin to stall from the central Florida Panhandle to eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Weak high pressure will move to the N central Gulf coast Mon as the front dissipates across NE portions. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 18N79W. Aside from the convection between 70W-78W mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection is over the western Caribbean and Central America W of 78W. Latest ASCAT pass shows some fresh winds N of N Colombia, and moderate winds elsewhere over the basin. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Tue night. A tropical wave over the central Caribbean will continue to produce very active weather as it moves W and reaches Central America Sun. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles this evening and approach Puerto Rico Sat night. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands early Sun, and continue through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front over the W Atlantic extends from 30N68W to Vero Beach Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A strong cold front is over the central Atlantic from 30N28W to 23N36W to 20N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm S of the front E of 40W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 37N35W supporting the cold front. High pressure across the NW Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh easterly winds over the forecast waters through Sat night. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W early Sun through Mon. $$ Torres