000 AXNT20 KNHC 250552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure system located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 23.2N 95.3W on 25/0300 UTC continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 19N-30N between 90W-97W. Further development is anticipated, and there is a high chance that a short-lived tropical depression will form today. The system is forecast to merge with a cold front or become post- tropical late today or Saturday over the central Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the western Gulf of Mexico around sunrise this morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gale force winds to 40 kt are expected behind the front south of 26N and west of 94W beginning early this morning. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz through Saturday morning before winds subside later Saturday. Seas will build to 12-16 ft over the area late today into early Saturday. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is very well defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 19W-25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 14N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 37W-43W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 22N50W to 14N52W to 06N52W, moving W at 5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and no showers are seen. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 07N-21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of N Colombia from 11N-14N between 71W-75W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the axis. Convection is also being enhanced by large scale upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N45W to 07N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, isolated moderate convection is from 02N-10N between 25W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on the low that is currently producing convection over the western Gulf of Mexico. Also see the Special Features section regarding the forecast Gale Warning over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front. The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of 83W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over Florida and the SE Gulf. The western Gulf of Mexico low a high chance forming into a tropical depression today. The low is expected to become post-tropical by Saturday or merge with a cold front that is currently approaching the NW Gulf of Mexico. By tonight, this front will reach from Louisiana into the Bay of Campeche. To the west of the front, northerly gale force winds are expected today into early Saturday over the western Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near 18N79W. Aside from the convection between 70W-76W mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection is over the western Caribbean and Central America W of 76W. Latest ASCAT pass shows fresh winds N of N Colombia, and moderate winds elsewhere over the basin. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Mon night. A weak tropical wave over and south of Haiti will move west into the western Caribbean by late Fri. A second weak tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Fri evening and approach Puerto Rico late Sat. Winds will be enhanced near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the next few days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands Sun and continue through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N68W to Vero Beach Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. A strong cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N31W to 25N40W to 24N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm S of the front E of 43W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level low is over the E Atlantic near 37N35W supporting the cold front. The W Atlantic front will weaken and dissipate today. High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W Sun to Mon. $$ Formosa