000 AXNT20 KNHC 241756 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 PM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Early morning visible satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche has become a little better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression before it merges with a cold front by late Friday. There is a medium chane of tropical cyclone formation in the next 5 days. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Fri morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche on Fri night, with gale force winds expected W of the front near the coast of Mexico Fri into early Sat. Developing 1008 mb low pres over the Bay of Campeche is producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. The low will drift N and could become a tropical depression before it merges with the frontal boundary by late Fri. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz into Saturday. Seas of 12-16 ft are expected. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is along 16W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly south of the monsoon trough from 02N-14N between 13W-22W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 13N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 37W-42W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N48W to 14N50W to 05N51W moving W at 10 kt. Total precipitable water imagery shows limited moisture content near the wave limiting convection along the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-20N between 67W-71W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over Venezuela. A tropical wave extends from the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W to the East Pacific near 06N96W, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The northern portion of the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting with a warm front to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 18N-24N between 91W-96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N16W to 06N25W to 06N33W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 05N38W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N42W to near 07N49W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 24W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends from 25N81W to 25N85W while the line becomes more active from 25N86W to 24N96W in the central Gulf. To the south, a surface trough extends from 23N26W to a 1008 mb low centered near 20N94W to 18N93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen along the stationary front W of 89W, and same activity is also seen along the trough axis near the low pres from 19N24W to 91W-96W associated to the low pressure. The stationary front will lift N as a warm front beginning this afternoon and pass N of the Gulf by Sat. A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Fri morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche on Fri night, with gale force winds expected W of the front near the coast of Mexico Fri into early Sat. Developing low pres over the Bay of Campeche is producing numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the SW Gulf. The low will drift N and could become a tropical depression before it merges with the frontal boundary by late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, please see the section above. Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central and eastern Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 64W-84W. Scattered moderate convection covers from Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean and Central America, scattered moderate convection is seen from W of 75W to 85W near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Mon night. A weak tropical wave will move west of Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean today and into the western Caribbean Sat. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Fri night and approach Puerto Rico Sun. Winds will be enhanced near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the next few days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to 29N70W, then transitions from that point to a stationary front to 28N77W, then weakens near 27N80W north of Stuart Florida. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N34W to 28N44W to 30N53W. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N34W to 22N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm SE of the trough. A 1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N10W. A nearly stationary front from 31N68W to near West Palm Beach Florida will weaken and dissipate through Fri. High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W beginning on Sun. $$ MMTorres