000 AXNT20 KNHC 241031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 631 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the Texas coast Friday morning. It is expected to bring gale force winds to the far western Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday, south of 26N and west of 95W. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz into Saturday. Seas of 12-16 ft are expected. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has an axis along 17W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly south of the monsoon trough from 02N- 14N between 10W-24W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 14N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N49W to 13N51W to 06N51W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over Venezuela from 05N-09N between 64W-70W. A tropical wave extends from the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W to the East Pacific near 06N96W, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The northern portion of the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting with a warm front to produce scattered moderate to strong convection from 18N-24N between 91W-96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 05N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N42W to the coast of French Guyana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 24W-34W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 24/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from near Stuart Florida to near Fort Myers Florida to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N86W. A warm front continues from 24N86W to the SW Gulf near 25N96W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front W of 87W. The Bay of Campeche has scattered moderate to strong convection from 18N-24N between 91W-95W, due to the tropical wave. The front is forecast to weaken as it lifts north and dissipates by tonight. The northern portion of a tropical wave moving through the Bay of Campeche is producing convection over the SW Gulf. A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Fri morning, and push into the Bay of Campeche on Fri night, with gale force winds expected W of the front near the coast of Mexico Fri into early Sat. An area of low pressure will drift N along the frontal boundary Sat and Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, please see the section above. Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central and eastern Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 64W-84W. Isolated moderate convection covers this area to include Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. In the far western Caribbean and Central America scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are mostly due to the tropical wave along 93W. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Sun night. A weak tropical wave will move west of Puerto Rico into the central Caribbean today. A second tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Fri night. Winds will be enhanced near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the next few days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands on Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to Stuart Florida at 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to 29N45W to beyond 31N52W. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N37W to 24N51W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm S of the trough. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N10W. The front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate through Fri. High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W beginning on Sun. The cold front over the central Atlantic will move SE today and proceed to the eastern Atlantic through Sat. $$ Formosa