423 AXNT20 KNHC 232305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front that will reach the Texas coast Friday morning is expected to bring gale force winds to the far western Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday morning, south of 26N and west of 94W. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz into Saturday. Seas of 12-15 ft are expected in the area by late Friday. See the latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has an axis along 14/15W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N-14N between 06W-21W and south of the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 14N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N- 10N between 33W-39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 18N51W to 03N53W and is moving W around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis N of 16N and S of 12N, with no significant showers seen from 12N-16N. A tropical wave extends from the southern Gulf of Mexico near 23N91W to the East Pacific near 07N94W and is moving W near 10 kt. The tropical wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The portion of the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting with a stationary front to produce scattered moderate convection in the area. See Gulf of Mexico section below for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W to 08N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 06N35W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N39W to 05N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen within 210 nm of the ITCZ between 25W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from near Jupiter Florida to near Naples Florida to 24N88W to 24N93W to 21N95W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 18N-24.5W between 85W-97W, including the SW Gulf and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the front over South Florida. The convection is being enhanced by a tropical wave, which is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The stationary front is forecast to weaken and dissipate by Thu night. The tropical wave will enhance thunderstorm activity associated with the front in the Bay of Campeche through tonight. The next cold front will reach the Texas coast Fri morning, then plunge southward over the western Gulf through Sat. Gale force NW to N winds are expected over the western Gulf behind the front Fri and Sat. See section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, please see the section above. Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 65W-83W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 16N between 66W-79W, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, SE Cuba and Jamaica. In the western Caribbean, abundant moisture along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms is west of a line from 11N77W to 14N76W to 20N82W to 23N84W, and this weather extends westward to Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Sun night. Weak tropical waves are located just west of the Lesser Antilles and in the Tropical Atlantic near 52W. Winds will be enhanced over the Caribbean near the tropical waves as they pass across the basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N72W to 28N79W, then continues as a stationary front to near Jupiter Florida to near Naples Florida. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the stationary front. Upper-level cyclonic flow over the north-central Caribbean extends to the area north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of 22.5N between 64W-69W, including in the Mona Passage. Farther E, a stationary front extends from a 1011 mb low near 29N51W to 25N53W to 23N57W. A surface trough extends ENE from the low to 32N41W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen within 60 nm of a line from 32N39W to 29N44W to 22N54W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 32N40W to 27N40W to 24N50W to 22N60W. Isolated showers are east of the upper-trough axis from 21N-29N between 26W-39W. The front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate by Thu night. High pressure over the western Atlc will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Long period NE swell due to a storm north of the area over the north-central Atlantic will cause seas to build on Friday north of 23N between 25W-55W, and to 70W by Sunday. $$ Hagen