000 AXNT20 KNHC 230914 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 514 AM EDT Wed Oct 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 01N-14N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-11N between 31W-39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 03N-18N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N between 44W-49W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W from 06N-20N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 91W from 06N-19N, moving W at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the W Caribbean, Central America, Yucatan Peninsula, and Bay of Campeche, from 10N-22N between 84W-96W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 05N23W to 06N34W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N37W to the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of W Africa from 03N-10N between 04W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 23/0900 UTC, a 1022 mb high is centered over Louisiana near 32N92W producing fair weather. A cold front extends from Fort Pierce Florida to Naples Florida to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche within 120 nm of the front S of 23N. A tropical wave is along 91W S of 19N enhancing convection over the Yucatan Peninsula and the eastern Bay of Campeche. The current cold front will stall and weaken today. The northern part of a tropical wave will enhance thunderstorm activity associated with the front in the Bay of Campeche through tonight. A cold front will reach the Texas coast Fri morning, then plunge southward in the western Gulf through Sat as unseasonably strong high pressure west of the front pushes into northern Mexico. Gale force NW to N winds are expected over the western Gulf behind the front Fri and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 91W enhancing convection over the W Caribbean. Another tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 61W producing showers. See above. 10-15 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola and Puerto Rico from 15N-20N between 65W-75W. This convection is mostly due to an upper level low that is centered over Hispaniola near 18N70W. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 12N. Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean through Sun night. Winds will briefly strengthen in the vicinity a pair of tropical waves passing across the basin through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N78W to Fort Pierce Florida near 27N80W. Isolated moderate convection is from 28N-31N between 78W-81W. A 1017 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 26N75W. A 1012 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N52W. A stationary front extends S from the low to 21N58W. Isolated moderate convection is from 23N-31N between 49W-55W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N20W. The W Atlantic cold front will stall and weaken from the northern Bahamas to southern Florida tonight and Thu. High pressure will build north of the area through Fri. $$ Formosa