000 AXNT20 KNHC 221650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30/31W from 03N-14N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W from 02N-12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well-depicted in TPW imagery and model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-16N between 40W-49W. Additional moderate convection is from 19N-21N between 40W-43W. A new tropical wave that originated from the mid-latitudes has been added to the analysis along 58W from 05N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model diagnostics. Isolated moderate showers are seen along the wave axis from 10N- 12N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N- 22N between 80W-90W. The northern end of this tropical wave is expected to bring enhanced rainfall and thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche on Wednesday. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 04N39W to 06N45W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N50W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N-11N between 20W-28N, and from 04N-09N between 34W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 22/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Tallahassee Florida to 25N90W to the coast of Mexico near 21.5N97.5W to 22N99W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is from 19N-26N between 93W-100W, which includes portions of Mexico from Tuxpan to Tampico. Strong NE winds are north of the front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE to S return flow. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central CONUS to include Texas supporting the cold front. An upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N75W. Strong subsidence is over S Florida and the SE Gulf. The cold front will move SE and reach from near Tampa, FL to just N of the Yucatan Peninsula to the western Bay of Campeche early Wed, where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE winds behind the front will continue through Wed afternoon. The northern end of the tropical wave currently along 87W will spread enhanced moisture westward through the Bay of Campeche on Wed. This moisture, combined with the leftover moisture from the weakening front in the western Bay of Campeche, will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Gulf of Mexico Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will gradually veer southeast across the basin Thursday in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to reach the Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected over the western Gulf behind this front Friday through Saturday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Caribbean tropical wave is producing a good amount of convection W of 77W. See above. A 1011 mb low along the East Pacific monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is near 10N77W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N-14.5N between 76W-82W. Elsewhere, a broad, E-W oriented upper-level trough over the eastern and central Caribbean is inducing scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms from 15N-18N between 65W-76W. Isolated showers and tstorms are over the ABC Islands and vicinity. Moderate tradewinds cover portions of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical wave along 87W will move W into Central America by tonight. High pressure N of the basin will strengthen after another tropical wave moves across the central Caribbean Sat, causing trade winds to freshen across central portions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from Bermuda to 28N70W, then continues as a stationary front to 28N74W to 32N78W. Little to no showers are noted. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N49W to 24N54W to 22N59W, dissipating to 22N65W. Isolated to scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen northeast of Puerto Rico from 19N-22N between 62W-66W, enhanced by a small area of upper-level divergence shown on the CIMSS - University of Wisconsin webpage. Of note in the upper levels, an upper-level trough axis extends from 32N42W to 23N51W to 16N76W. Upper-level diffluence well east of this upper- trough axis is enhancing isolated moderate convection within 60 nm of a line from 31N31W to 27N32W to 24N39W. The W Atlantic stationary front will dissipate by Wed morning. The next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida this evening, then become stationary over central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thu, gradually dissipating along 27N by Fri night. High pressure will build from the middle Atlantic coast over the western Atlantic in the wake of this front. $$ Hagen