000 AXNT20 KNHC 212343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 10N to 17N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 16N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 250 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 10N to 16N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland, in central Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and sections of Central America, from 20N southward between 80W and 90W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the area that is from Panama to Honduras and Guatemala and nearby coastal waters, in the same area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 09N18W and 07N21W. The ITCZ is along 07N21W, 07N37W, 08N43W, and 08N47W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 20W and 37W. Scattered moderate to strong is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 41W and 47W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from the monsoon trough/ITCZ southward, between 20W and 38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, just offshore, along the Texas coast. Precipitation: Scattered strong is within 160 nm to 280 nm to the east of the cold front, from 25N northward. An inland upper level trough is supporting the cold front. Satellite imagery, and GFS model data from 700 mb to 250 mb, show that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico that is to the east of the cold front. A 28N/29N warm front is between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm to the south of the warm front between 81W and 82W, and within 90 nm to the north of the warm front between 80W and 84W. Isolated moderate within 60 nm to the SSW of Lake Okeechobee in Florida. Southerly return flow prevails across most of the Gulf of Mexico this evening, as a cold front has moved into the Texas coastal waters. The front will move SE and reach from near Mobile, AL to near Tampico, Mexico early Tue, then from near Cape Coral, FL to offshore of NE Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche early Wed, where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE winds are expected behind the front Tue through Wed afternoon. Winds gradually will veer SE across the basin Thursday, in advance of the next cold front, which is expected to reach the Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force N winds are expected behind this front Fri and Fri night across the western Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is inland, in central Nicaragua. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and sections of Central America, from 20N southward between 80W and 90W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the area that is from Panama to Honduras and Guatemala and nearby coastal waters, in the same area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. A tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 20N southward. A separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from SE Cuba toward the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within a 45 nm radius of 20N76.5W in SE Cuba. Isolated moderate elsewhere to the north of the line from SE Cuba to the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W, to 09N80W, beyond 10N86W in NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in N Colombia and NW Venezuela, near the border of Colombia and Panama, and in Panama from 80W westward. A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical wave along 81W/82W will move westward toward Central America and the NW Caribbean, exiting the region by mid-week. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will strengthen across the basin, behind a tropical wave on Saturday, and freshen the trade winds across central sections. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N69W to 29N74W to 28N78W. A 28N/29N warm front is between 78W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the north of the front, mainly from 77W westward. A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front curves from 32N47W, to 28N50W, and to 23N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 120 nm to the E and SE of the stationary front between 50W and 55W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 21N to 23N between 60W and 64W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N32W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 22N northward between 20W and 40W. One surface trough is along 31N36W to 31N33W, to 23N34W. A second surface trough is along 26N42W 20N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 300 nm to the east of the 31N36W 23N34W surface trough. isolated moderate within 120 nm to the north of the 26N42W 20N45W surface trough. A weak cold front from 31N70W to 28N78W will shift slowly E through the week. Another cold front will move off the coast of N Florida on Tuesday evening. The front will become stationary in central Florida, and N of the Bahamas by Thursday. The front will dissipate gradually along 27N. High pressure will build from the middle Atlantic coast SE into the area, in the wake of this front. $$ mt