000 AXNT20 KNHC 202346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/29W, from 15N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: monsoon trough and ITCZ related isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 22W and 34W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 14N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 33W and 41W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/76W, from 21N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America between 74W and 87W. Precipitation: Numerous strong in Haiti from 18.5N northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate elsewhere within 300 nm to the E of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is moving through Guatemala, along 90W/91W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, curving to 10N19W, 06N22W, and 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N29W, 07N35W, 05N43W, 04N45W and 04N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 22W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 33W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery, and GFS model data from 700 mb to 250 mb, show that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 32N78W, in the Atlantic Ocean, across central Florida near 28N81W, into the Gulf of Mexico to 24N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 26N southward from 88W eastward. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong along the coast of Mexico, from 23N to 25N, just to the south of the border with Texas. This precipitation also is upstream from the periphery of T.D. Priscilla, that is inland in SW Mexico. Weak high pressure has moved into the far NE coastal waters and will slide NE through Monday night. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. The front will extend across the basin from central Florida to NE Mexico by Wednesday morning. Strong NE winds are expected behind the front on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The front is forecast to weaken and dissipate by Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 180 nm to the east of Nicaragua, along 13N/14N. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea, between 74W and 87W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong has been moving from east to west, across Nicaragua, during the last few hours. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between northern sections of Colombia and western and NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in NW Panama and in NW Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere in the coastal waters of Colombia from 10N southward from 78W eastward, and elsewhere in Panama and Costa Rica. A weak Bermuda high pressure center will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Thursday night, except for fresh SE winds pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and on Monday night. An active 74W/76W tropical wave will move westward and reach the western Caribbean Sea by Tuesday. No tropical cyclones are expected in the Caribbean Sea during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A central Atlantic Ocean cold front curves from 32N48W, to 28N50W, and to 25N58W. A shear line continues from 25N58W to 26N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 200 nm to the E and SE of the cold front. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 70W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N35W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N to 33N between 25W and 44W. One surface trough is along 33N30W to 31N33W, to 23N34W. A second surface trough is along 42W/43W from 20N to 27N. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 24N northward between 31W and 37W. A dissipating cold front passes through 30N10W to 26N19W to 28N27W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N northward from 30W eastward. The remnants of Nestor currently are approaching the middle Atlantic coast. The remnants will generate fresh S to SW winds in the NW waters this evening, and then diminish late tonight. Weak high pressure will prevail elsewhere in the area on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida on Tuesday evening. The cold front will become stationary in central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thursday. No new tropical cyclones are expected in the forecast waters during the next several days. $$ mt