000 AXNT20 KNHC 201725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 125 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 28W from 02N-14N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the wave's environment at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 14N41W to 08N43W to 01N43W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted by model guidance and scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 34W-44W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W from 05N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 10N-19N between 70W-79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 07N20W to 05N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 08N37W to 06N42W. The ITCZ resumes once again W of a tropical wave near 05N45W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, widely scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-08N between 10W-18W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 20/1500 UTC, a 1015 mb high is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W. The tail end of a cold front extends from central Florida near Titusville to Tampa Florida to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N87W. Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf from 22N-26N between 83W-87W. Elsewhere, widely scattered moderate convection is over the western Bay of Campeche from 19N-22N between 94W-98W. Of notein the upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N89W. Strong subsidence is over the central Gulf. Marine conditions will continue to improve rapidly across the NE Gulf today as Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor moves from North Carolina toward the north Atlantic. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, extend across the basin from central Florida to NE Mexico by Wed morning. Strong NE winds are expected behind the front Tue and Tue night, then the front will weaken and dissipate by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Widely scattered moderate convection is near the ABC Islands from 11N-14N between 65W-70W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 13N79W moving W, and enhancing convection. A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the the basin through Thu night, except for fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras today and Mon. An active tropical wave near 75W will move westward and reach the western Caribbean by Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the basin during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N80W to Titusville Florida near 29N81W. Prefrontal scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 26N-29N between 76W-78W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N64W. A central Atlantic cold front extends from 31N49W to 24N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm E of the front. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 27N33W to 23N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-30N between 29W-38W. A large upper level low centered near 38N35W is also enhancing the E Atlantic convection. The tail end of a cold front is near the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 28N16W to 27N20W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands. Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor over North Carolina will continue northeastward toward the North Atlantic. Nestor will generate near gale force S to SW winds in the coastal waters east of N Florida this morning, quickly diminishing during the day. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening and become stationary over central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected over the forecast waters during the next several days. $$ Formosa