000 AXNT20 KNHC 201039 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 01N-15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted in the wave's environment at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N41W to 01N42W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This position is well depicted by model guidance and with latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 39W-42W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-18N between 67W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 08N25W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N28W to 06N40W. The ITCZ resumes once again W of another tropical wave near 05N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends SW across northeast Gulf from 27N82W to 25N85W. A surface trough extends from 25N84W to 22N87W with scattered moderate convection. A 1011 mb surface high is located near 28N89W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf. ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong westerly winds across the northeast Gulf. Marine conditions will continue to improve rapidly across the NE Gulf today. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, extend across the basin from central Florida to NE Mexico by Wed morning and produce strong NE winds behind the front, and dissipate by Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected for the Gulf for at least the next several day. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan Channel, where scattered moderate convection prevail. ASCAT data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean, except for locally fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the the basin through Thu night, except for fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Honduras today and Mon. The tropical wave will continue to move westward and reach the western Caribbean by Tue. No tropical cyclones are expected over the basin during the next several days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. Scattered showers prevail across the W Atlantic west of 68W. To the east, a cold front extends from 32N50W to 25N68W. A surface trough extends from 28N51W to 23N63W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along these features mainly north of 23N. Farther east, another surface trough is analyzed from 28N39W to 23N39W associated to an upper-level low enhancing showers and tstorms north of 25N between 30W-38W. The cold front will shift east of the area later today. Post- Tropical Cyclone Nestor over Georgia and South Carolina will move northeastward across the SE United States today. Nestor will generate near gale-force S to SW winds in the coastal waters east of N Florida this morning, quickly diminishing during the day. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. The next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening and become stationary over central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thu. No new tropical cyclones are expected in the waters during the next several days. $$ ERA