000 AXNT20 KNHC 200551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-tropical cyclone Nestor remains inland near 32N83.5W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds in the vicinity N of 29.5N and W of 77W. These conditions are expected through 20/0600 UTC. For more information, refer to the High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from 01N-15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 90 nm to the east of the wave axis mainly south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N40W to 00N41W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds well with where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis and with latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N between 39W-42W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 71W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis affecting Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 07N23W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 08N27W to 08N38W. The ITCZ resumes once again W of another tropical wave near 05N42W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ between 30W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends SW across northeast Gulf from 28N83W to 26N85W. A surface trough extends from 25N84W to 22N87W with scattered showers. A 1009 mb surface high is located near 26N92W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf. ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong southerly wind ahead of the front along the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection extends from near Key West to the Yucatan Peninsula. Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf today as what was Nestor continues moving inland off to the NE. The next cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Mon night, then extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan Channel, where scattered moderate convection prevail. ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel, as well as in the NW Caribbean north of 17N between 83W-87W. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean, except for locally fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers over Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the the basin through mid-week, except for fresh to strong winds across portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh S to SE winds through the Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish today. An active tropical wave along 71W will move W and reach the western Caribbean by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. See the section above for details. Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the section above for details. A warm front extends from 32N79W to 29N74W. Scattered showers prevail across the W Atlantic west of 68W. To the east, a cold front extends from 31N52W to 26N69W, then transition to a stationary front to 26N71W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the cold front mainly north of 24N. Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N31W to 20N35W associated to an upper-level low enhancing showers and tstorms north of 25N between 31W-38W. The gale-force winds over the W Atlantic will diminish overnight. Moderate N-NE swell will move through the eastern waters through today before fading. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. The next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida by Tue evening. $$ ERA