000 AXNT20 KNHC 200000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor has moved inland over the Florida Panhandle as of 19/2100, centered near 30.4N 84.1W. Nestor is moving to the NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. No deep convection is seen within 270 nm of the center. However, scattered showers are along the eastern Gulf coast. The deeper convection (scattered moderate to isolated strong) is seen inland over portion of the SE. On the forecast track, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor will move across portions of the southeastern United States tonight and Sunday. The cyclone is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop this evening in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic waters mainly north of 29.5N and west of 78W. These conditions will continue through early Sunday morning. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. For more information about the Gale Warning, refer to the High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 24W from 14N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis south of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 14N38W to 00N40W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds well with where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen from 04N-14N between 34W-41W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 69W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered moderate showers are seen from 11N-19N between 65W-73W and the coast of Venezuela, Colombia, Puerto Rico, the Mona Passage and Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 05N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 04N42W to 05N51W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection are along 380 nm N of the ITCZ between 33W-36W. Scattered showers are also off Africa from 03N-10N, east of 09W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... Post-tropical cyclone Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. A cold front extends SW from Nestor to 27N87W. A warm front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida. A 1010 mb surface high pressure is located in the western Gulf of Mexico near 26N92W keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf. ASCAT imagery show fresh to strong southerly wind ahead of the front along the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection extends from near Key West to the Yucatan Peninsula. Nestor will move quickly across the SE U.S. this evening through Sun and emerge over water across coastal North Carolina late Sun afternoon and move ENE across the W Atlc Mon and Tue. Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf tonight through Sun as Nestor moves off to the NE. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, then extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan Channel, where scattered moderate convection is seen north of 21N and east of 87W. ASCAT shows fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel, as well as in the NW Caribbean north of 17N between 83W- 87W. Moderate trades prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean, except for locally fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate showers over Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the basin through Wed night. Fresh S to SE winds across the Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish Sun as Tropical Storm Nestor accelerates NE and exits the Gulf of Mexico. An active tropical wave along 70W will move W and reach the western Caribbean by Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic north of 29.5N and west of 78W beginning this evening due to Post- Tropical Cyclone Nestor. See section above for details. A warm front extends from Nestor to Tallahassee Florida to 31N81W to 28N76W. See Special Features section above for description of convection. A cold front extends from 31N55W to 25N68W and transition to a stationary front to 25N71W. A large mid-upper level trough digs southward from the mid-latitudes to about 28N along 52W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen from 25N-31N between 47W-54W. Farther E, a surface trough is seen 19N33W to 26N31W associated to an upper level low enhancing showers and tstorms north of the trough. A weak cold front extends from 26.5N65W to 25N72W and will shift E of the area late tonight. Post Tropical Cyclone Nestor over the Florida Panhandle near 30.4N 84.1W at 2100 UTC will move NE across the SE United States this weekend. Nestor will generate minimal gale force S to SW winds north of 29.5N over the NW Atlc coastal waters this evening. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening. $$ MMTorres