000 AXNT20 KNHC 191037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 29.0N 86.0W at 19/0900 UTC or 70 nm SW of Apalachicola Florida moving NE at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted across the eastern portion of the system north of 22N and east of 87W. On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle this morning, and will then move across portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Gale-force winds are expected to develop by this evening in relation to Nestor over the west Atlantic waters mainly north of 30N and west of 76W. These conditions will continue through 20/0600 UTC. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. For more information about the Gale Warning, refer to the High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the eastern Atlantic, with axis along 22W from 01N-13N. This wave is depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted to the east of the wave axis from 08N- 13N and east of 21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 39W from 12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 32W and the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 67W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted well at the surface in scatterometer data. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis from 14N-16N. A tropical wave extends across Central America with axis along 86W from 02N-18N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 17N16W to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 05N40W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is noted at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for details. A stationary front extends from 29N83W to 30N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along this front. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds prevailing across the western half of the basin west of 90W. Fair weather prevails across the western Gulf also. Nestor will move move inland near 30N85W across the central Florida Panhandle, and to 30.7N 84.0W this afternoon, then become post-tropical and move to 33.5N 80.0W Sun morning. Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf tonight and Sun as Nestor accelerates off to the NE. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. See the section above for details. Upper-level ridging covers most of the western two-thirds of the Caribbean. Mostly fair weather is west of 70W, with the exception of the Yucatan Channel, where convection from the outer fringes of Nestor are noted. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across the whole basin. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail across most of the the basin through mid-week. Fresh SE winds are likely near the Yucatan Channel this morning as Tropical Storm Nestor moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical wave southwest of Puerto Rico will continue to move westward across the central and W Caribbean through early next week enhancing convection. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin and a Gale Warning is in effect for the west Atlantic waters. See the sections above for details. A cold front over the west Atlantic extends from 31N60W to 25N72W, then continues as a stationary front to 28N80W. Scattered showers prevail along the cold front, while scattered moderate convection prevails west of 77W as T.S. Nestor approaches. To the east, a surface trough extends from 26N33W to 22N33W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The frontal system over the west Atlantic will dissipate west of 75W later today. T.S. Nestor in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE United States this weekend, and gale force S to SW winds north of 30N are expected ahead of it across NW Atlc waters this evening. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. The next cold front will move off the coast of N Florida by Tue evening. $$ ERA