000 AXNT20 KNHC 182345 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 745 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 27.6N 87.6W at 19/0000 UTC or 120 nm SE of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong convection is located 60 to 270 nm E of the center. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, including over the Gulf Coast of Florida from Ft. Myers to Pensacola. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland into the Florida Panhandle by late Saturday morning, and then continue over portions of the southeastern U.S. into Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 32W and the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers are elsewhere east of a line from the Mona Passage to 11.5N69.5W. The ASCAT pass from late Friday morning showed a localized area of strong SE winds just east of the wave axis from 13N-15.5N. A tropical wave extends along 85W from the Gulf of Honduras near 17N southward to the east Pacific near 02N. Isolated moderate convection is over portions of Central America from Panama to Nicaragua. Isolated showers are over the SW Caribbean south of 14N and west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N22W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 06N35W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N39W to 06N48W to 05N52W. Isolated showers are north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 40W- 48W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is along the west coast of Africa from 08N-12N and east of 16W. GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See Special Features section above for details. A stationary front extends from West Palm Beach Florida to Venice Florida and becomes a warm front near 27N83W to 29N87W to 28.5N90W. An upper-level trough is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, just to the west of Nestor. This is producing strong westerly wind shear over Nestor, causing all the convection to be confined to the east side of Nestor. The trough is also steering Nestor toward the northeast. The center of Nestor will move inland near Apalachicola Florida late Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds predicted to be near 55 kt. Winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico will then gradually diminish, decreasing to below 15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as Nestor moves farther away. Seas of 15-20 ft are expected tonight in the NE Gulf. After landfall, seas in the NE Gulf will then diminish to below 10 ft Saturday evening and to below 8 ft later Saturday night. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico by Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. Upper-level ridging covers most of the western two-thirds of the Caribbean Sea. Mostly fair weather is west of 70W, with the exception of the Yucatan Channel, where showers from the outer fringes of Nestor are seen. An upper-level trough axis is from 10N73W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is over the Lesser Antilles, due to the influences of upper-level diffluence and the tropical wave along 65W. Scattered showers are elsewhere east of a line from the Mona Passage to 11.5N69.5W. Isolated showers are also over the far SW Caribbean south of 14N and west of 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast across most of the basin through at least Wed night. Fresh SE winds are likely near the Yucatan Channel through Sat as Tropical Storm Nestor moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave currently in the E Caribbean is accompanied by active weather and will move westward across the central and W Caribbean through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N61W to 27N70W to 26N75W, then continues as a stationary front to West Palm Beach Florida to Venice Florida. Scattered moderate convection is along and ahead of the front N of 29N between 55W-65W. Overcast cirrus clouds from Nestor are spreading east of Florida over the western Atlantic, with isolated showers seen on radar. An upper-level trough extends from the Virgin Islands NE to 25N56W. A line of scattered showers and isolated tstorms is parallel to, but just east of the upper-trough. The convection is seen within 60 nm of a line from 18N62W to 23N54W to 31N49W. A 1022 mb surface high is near 32N40W. However, a large upper-level low centered near 32N37W is inducing scattered moderate convection in an E-W band along 28N between 34W-42W and from 28N-32N between 33W-37W. Another trough well to the south of the Azores is inducing scattered moderate convection from 25N-29N between 25W-29W. The W Atlantic front should continue progressing southeastward east of 75W, while the portion west of 75W should dissipate by Sat. Tropical Storm Nestor in the central Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE United Stats this weekend, and produce strong to near gale force S to SW winds ahead of it across NW Atlc waters tonight through Sun afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible on Saturday from 30N-31N between 80W-82W. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening. $$ Hagen