000 AXNT20 KNHC 181824 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 224 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 26.3N 89.5W at 18/1800 UTC or 170 nm S of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving NE at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong convection is E of the center from 23N-28N between 85W-89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-31N between 80W-90W. On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight and move inland across portions of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late Sunday. Nestor is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become post- tropical on Saturday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 12N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along 64W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean along 83W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N-13N between 75W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N20W to 05N28W. The ITCZ extends from 05N28W to 06N35W. The ITCZ continues W of a tropical wave near 06N38W to the coast of French Guyana near 05N52W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 04N-10N between 39W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See Special Features section above for details. As of 18/1500 UTC, a stationary front over S Florida extends from 27N80W to 27N83W. A warm front continues from 27N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 29N89W to 28N91W. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level trough is over Louisiana and Mississippi moving E. Upper level diffluence E of the trough axis is enhancing the convection over T.S. Nestor. T.S. Nestor will move to 27.8N 88.0W this evening, 29.9N 85.5W Sat morning, become extratropical and move to 32.2N 82.5W Sat evening, 34.4N 78.5W Sun morning, and 37.0N 71.0W Mon morning. Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the basin Sat night and Sun as the cyclone accelerates off to the NE into the W Atlc. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. An Upper level high is centered over the NW Caribbean near 20N85W. Strong subsidence is over the central Caribbean from N of 13N between 69W-84W producing mostly fair weather. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely near the Yucatan Channel through Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave will traverse Central America today and Sat. Another tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will be accompanied by active weather as it moves W across the eastern Caribbean through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 18/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N64W to 26N76W to 27N79W, then transitions to a stationary front over the N Bahamas near 27N79W to S Florida near 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N between 56W-64W. Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 32N53W to 29N54W marked with a wind shift. Another surface trough is over the e Atlantic from 27N30W to 24N31W to 20N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-29N between 24W-29W. of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic with axis from 30N28W to 17N40W. Upper level diffluence E of the axis is enhancing the convection over the E Atlantic. The W Atlantic front will move E toward the central Atlantic through tonight. T.S. Nestor in the central Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE U.S. this weekend, and produce strong to near gale force southerly winds ahead of it across W Atlantic waters tonight through Sun night. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the coast of northern Florida Tue evening. $$ Formosa