000 AXNT20 KNHC 180557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 24.1N 93.7W at 18/0300 UTC or 445 nm SW of the mouth of the Mississippi River moving NE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen E of the low from 21N-26N between 89W-93W, scattered showers and isolated tstorms are further north closer to the northern Gulf coast from 26N-29N between 83W-93W. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Friday night and then move over portions of the SE United States on Saturday. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm on Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W from 12N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-20N between 56W-60W, impacting the islands of St. Lucia north to Dominica. Expect enhanced rains over the Lesser Antilles tonight through Friday morning with the passage of this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W from 17N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Senegal near 13N16W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N39W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 350 nm north of the monsoon trough 26W-32W, and along the ITCZ between 37W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See Special Features section above for details. A stationary front extends from Venice Florida near 27N82W to 27N89W to 26N96W, dissipating to 23N96W. Strong upper-level divergence over the Gulf of Mexico, the stationary front, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are enhancing scattered moderate convection over the basin, especially near the coastal areas in the northern Gulf. Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the basin Sat night through Sun as Sixteen accelerates off to the NE and eventually into the W Atlc waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. A large mid-upper level high along with subsidence covers much of the central and northern Caribbean. Precipitation is enhanced over the Lesser Antilles in association with a tropical wave and in the SW Caribbean near the other tropical wave along 80W. Scattered showers and tstorms are present over Haiti moving offshore from 17N-18N between 72W-74W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin through the upcoming weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW portions Fri through Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave across the Lesser Antilles this evening will be accompanied by very active weather as it moves W across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 27N78W north of the Bahamas. It continues W as a stationary front along 27N just N of Lake Okeechobee to Venice Florida. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen about 180 nm SE of the front from 28N-21N between 60W-64W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near southeast Florida from 25N-27N between 78W-81W and in the Florida Straits. A pre frontal trough is from 27N64W to 32N63W. A second trough is seen further east near 26N56W to 30N55W. No significant convection is seen near this trough at this time. A 1016 mb surface high between these two troughs is producing calm weather near 26N61W. An upper-level trough extends northeastward from the NE Caribbean to 25N57W to 31N45W. Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms is within 150 nm either side of a line that extends from 22N52W to 31N48W. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 16N30W to 22N31W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the northern end of this trough from 22N-26N between 25W-29W. An E-W high pressure ridge extends along 30/32N between 15W-38W. The cold front across the NW waters will move eastward into the central Atlantic through early Fri, then stall and become ill defined east of Florida on Fri. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen in the SW Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE U.S. this weekend, and produce strong to near gale force southerly winds ahead of it across NW Atlc waters Fri night through Sun night. Weak high pressure will prevail across the area Mon and Tue. $$ MMTorres