000 AXNT20 KNHC 171055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure center is about 100 nm to the ENE of Mexico's coast that is near 20N96.5W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 360 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. This precipitation covers the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, NW sections of the Yucatan Peninsula, and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A cold front is approaching the area of the 1010 mb low pressure, from the north. The precipitation pattern has been organizing itself more and more during the last several hours. The most recent satellite wind data also were indicating that the system was producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development. It is likely that a tropical storm or a subtropical storm will form later today or tonight, while the system moves generally northeastward in the western Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure center is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday or Saturday. It is likely that the weather feature will produce gusty winds and rough surf in those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across parts of the southeast U.S.A. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Please, read bulletins and forecasts, that are issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center, for more information about marine hazards while the low pressure center moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. The chance of more development of this weather feature, into a tropical cyclone or into a subtropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. The area of interest is in the western or central Gulf of Mexico, while the system is moving generally northeastward. This low pressure system is forecast to produce strong to near- gale force winds, from late Thursday through early Saturday, in sections of the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a possibility of reaching gale force by Friday evening. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or see the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, also, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure, that is inland in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, will spread heavy rainfall to parts of those Mexican states, and the states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, through today, Thursday. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please monitor bulletins and forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 12N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related isolated moderate to locally strong is from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 21N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 11N to 21N between 50W and 61W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. The southern part of the wave is moving through the area of an upper level inverted trough that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The northern part of the wave is moving across Jamaica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 11N southward between Colombia and 80W. Isolated moderate, elsewhere in Venezuela and Colombia, including in the coastal waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 08N to 12N between 70W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea- Bissau near 12N17W, to 09N25W and 07N31W. The ITCZ is along 07N31W 06N38W 06N45W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong within 300 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 19W and 28W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong elsewhere within 240 nm on either side of the rest of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Isolated moderate remainder of area from 07N southward from 14W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 25N94W, and to the coast of Mexico near 22N98W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible elsewhere within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The current cold front will stall across the central Gulf of Mexico later today, and meander in the northern Gulf of Mexico through Friday. A developing broad low pressure area, that is centered near 21N95W, will drift northward today, accelerate NE, and intensify on Friday and Saturday. Strong to near gale force winds will encircle the low on Friday. Expect gale force winds with the low pressure center in the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday night and Saturday. This feature has a high chance to develop into a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone, during the next two days. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 20N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea, to 14N75W, to 12N80W, into central sections of Nicaragua. Little to no deep convective precipitation is related directly to this upper level trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the 20N61W-to-17N67W-to-12N80W trough. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 75W in Colombia and beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 11N southward between Colombia and 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin through the weekend. Expect fresh SE winds across NW sections on Friday and Saturday, as low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles later today. The wave will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Scattered rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N74W beyond central Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm of the front to the E and SE, from 27N northward. An upper level trough passes through 32N52W, to 24N59W, 20N61W, to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 32N64W 29N61W 25N58W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 25N to 28N between 50W and 55W. A second surface trough passes through 32N49W to 31N51W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate within 210 nm to the east of the surface trough, from 28N northward. A third surface trough, remnants of T.D. FIFTEEN, is along 25W/27W from 18N to 25N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm to the west of the surface trough, from 20N to 26N. The current Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida-to-Gulf of Mexico cold front will push eastward into the central Atlantic through Friday night. The front will stall and weaken, to the east of Florida, by Friday morning. A developing area of low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move across the SE U.S.A. this weekend. It is likely that this feature will produce strong southerly winds ahead of the low pressure center across the NW Atlantic Ocean waters. $$ mt