000 AXNT20 KNHC 170605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low pressure center is about 80 nm to the NE of the Mexico's coast near 20N96.5W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 240 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered to numerous strong in clusters also covers the waters and inland areas from 90 nm to the N of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the NW coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, to inland areas of the eastern Isthmus of Tehuantepec and the NW part of Guatemala. The precipitation pattern become a little better organized during the past several hours. Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is producing winds to near tropical storm force. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development. It is likely that a tropical storm or a subtropical storm will form later today or tonight, while the system moves generally northeastward in the western Gulf of Mexico. The low pressure center is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday or Saturday. It is likely that the weather feature will produce gusty winds and rough surf in those areas. Heavy rainfall is also possible across parts of the southeast U.S.A. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. Please, read bulletins and forecasts, that are issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center, for more information about marine hazards while the low pressure center moves across the Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. The chance of more development of this weather feature, into a tropical cyclone or into a subtropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. The area of interest is in the western or central Gulf of Mexico, while the system is moving generally northeastward. It is possible that this system may produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along sections of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Friday and Saturday. This low pressure system is forecast to produce strong to near-gale force winds, from late Thursday through early Saturday, in sections of the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with a possibility of reaching gale force by Friday evening. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC or see the website hurricanes.gov for more details. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, also, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO... A broad area of low pressure, that is inland in the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero, will spread heavy rainfall to parts of those Mexican states, and the states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit, through Thursday. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Please monitor bulletins and forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 11N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: ITCZ-related isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave, from 01N to 05N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W, from 22N southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the E of the trough, from 12N to 22N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N southward, moving W 15 knots. The wave is moving through the area of an upper level inverted trough that is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate in clusters in Venezuela and Colombia, including in the coastal waters of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 06N to 11N between 71W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal and The Gambia, near 13N17W, to 12N20W, to 16N25W near the Cabo Verde Islands, to 09N27W, and 06N33W. The ITCZ is along 05N36W 04N51W, in Brazil near the border with French Guiana. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 09N between 18W and 27W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the N of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 25W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front cuts across NE Florida, into the N central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico along 98W near 23N/24N. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The current cold front will extend from N central Florida to near 27N90W to Tampico, Mexico later this morning. The 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 21N95.5W will allow strong N winds to spill southward across the Mexican coastal waters. The front will meander across the N Gulf of Mexico through Friday, before becoming diffuse, while the low moves slowly NE and becomes better organized. Strong to near gale force winds will surround the low pressure center on Friday. Gale-force winds are expected across E sections of the low pressure center on Friday night and Saturday. This low pressure center has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone or a subtropical cyclone late this week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 20N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea, to 14N75W, to 12N80W, into central sections of Nicaragua. Little to no deep convective precipitation is related directly to this upper level trough. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea to the west of the 20N61W-to-17N67W-to-12N80W trough. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the basin through the weekend. Expect fresh southerly winds across NW sections from Friday through Saturday, as low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Mexico. A 57W tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles later this morning, across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and into the central basin on Saturday. Expect very active weather with the tropical wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N78W beyond NE Florida. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 240 nm of the front to the E and SE, from 27N northward. An upper level trough passes through 32N52W, to 24N59W, 20N61W, to 17N67W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 30N63W 27N60W 24N59W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N northward between 47W and 58W. Weak high pressure will prevail across the waters during the overnight hours. The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will enter the NW forecast waters on Thursday morning. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 29N will continue through Thursday morning, when the front is expected to reach from 30N73W SW to near Palm Bay, Florida. The front will reach from 30N65W to Freeport, Bahamas to near West Palm Beach on Friday morning, and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on Saturday. Low pressure will move from the NE Gulf of Mexico across the SE U.S.A., from Saturday through Sunday, in order to produce strong southerly winds across the NW Atlantic waters. $$ mt