000 AXNT20 KNHC 152346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Depression Fifteen... Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 16.8N 22.9W at 15/2100 UTC or 80 nm NE of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N-20N between 17W-22W. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move across the island of Sal this evening and over or near the northern Cabo Verde Islands tonight and early Wednesday morning. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A trough of low pressure located over southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay of Campeche. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains across portions of southern Mexico and Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Some gradual development is possible after the disturbance moves over water and a tropical or subtropical cyclone could form later this week over the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 30W from 10N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are from 01N-08N between 20W- 28W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic with axis along 54W from 18N southward, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-17N between 50W-55W. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean with axis along 68W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the part of the wave that remains over land, affecting western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 04N32W to 09N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered showers are noted along the whole ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends over the Florida Panhandle from 31N83W to beyond 31N88W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the front. Further south, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche 21N93W to 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 22N between 90W-96W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. Gentle to moderate return flow will prevail across the basin through tonight, ahead of the next cold front expected to enter the NW gulf Wed morning. The front will extend from 28N82W to near 27N90W to near Tampico, Mexico by Thu morning. By Fri the front will extend from near 26N82W to 26N86W, where it will transition to a warm front as low pressure develops near 27N91W. A stationary front and a surface trough will extend from the low SW towards the Bay of Campeche. Very active weather is expected across the basin with this frontal system. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the southwest Caribbean, and the tropical wave over the central Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Scattered showers are over the SW Caribbean south of 10N and west of 75W due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. Broad low pressure across Central America and the southern Gulf of Mexico will yield moderate to fresh SE winds across the NW Caribbean throughout the week. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh tradewinds are expected across the rest of the basin through the period. An active tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters tonight and Wed, across the Lesser Antilles Thu, and the eastern Caribbean Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on T.D. Fifteen, and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 31N73W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 32N62W to 25N62W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm to the east of the trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 32N37W. Weak high pressure will prevail across the area W of 65W through early Thu. A cold front is expected to enter the NW forecast waters Thu morning. Fresh to near gale force SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N ahead of the front Wed through Thu morning. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to just N of Freeport, Bahamas to the east coast of Florida near 26N80W early Thu night, and move east of the area by Sat. $$ ERA