000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Depression Fifteen... The Tropical Depression Fifteen is located at 15.6N 20.9W, moving towards the NW at 10 kt. TD Fifteen has max winds of 30 kt and gusts up to 40 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1006 mb. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 13N-19N between 17W-21W. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today. Slight strengthening is possible, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is over the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 25W from 10N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted well in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 51W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. A 1010 mb low pressure is east of the wave near 12N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low from 11N-13N between 48W-54W. A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea is along 62W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N in the coastal areas of Guyana and Venezuela, and to the north from 15N-21N between 61W-65W near the U.S. Virgin Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough gets cut off from Senegal near the coast of Africa and begins south of T.D. Fifteen from 07N22W to 04N36W. The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 04N49W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered showers are noted along the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the Gulf coastline between 86W-94W. Scattered showers are within the boundary. Further south, a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche and a second trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both of the trough are enhancing scattered moderate convection in the region, from south of 21N and west of 91W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin with moderate northeast winds over the Bay east of the trough axis. A stationary front across the northern Gulf waters will drift northward and dissipate by late tonight. A cold front will push into the northern Gulf Wed, then become stationary from central Florida to southern Texas on Thu. A broad low pressure area over Central America will drift northward ahead of the front into the Bay of Campeche Wed, accompanied by widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the southwest Caribbean and the tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean south of 19N and west of 75W. Broad low pressure over Central America will move NW into the southern Gulf of Mexico Wed. Fresh SE winds, widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras through tonight. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic through Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Fri, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on T.D. Fifteen and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 31N69W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N60W to 23N63W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave, from 21N-31N between 58W-61W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted to the east of the trough from 20N-27N between 52W-57W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 33N35W. A cold front will move off the coast of southern Georgia Wed night, reach from 30N65W to central Florida by Fri morning, then stall and weaken Sat. An area of fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front on Wed will lift N of the area Thu. $$ Torres