000 AXNT20 KNHC 150604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 204 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Tropical Depression Fifteen... The tropical wave across the east Atlantic, now is a Tropical Depression Fifteen located at 14.5N 20.8W, moving towards the NW at 8 kt. TD Fifteen has max winds of 30 kt and gusts up to 40 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1006 mb. Scattered moderate convection is seen 350 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and then move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday night and Wednesday. Slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over northwestern Honduras. This system will move west-northwest across southern Belize, northern Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next day or so, preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By Wednesday, however, the system is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur later this week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis extending from 00N30W to 09N25W. The wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted depicted well in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. A tropical wave is near 05N51W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 12N50W to 19N49W, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance as well. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low from 11N-15N between 47W-53W. A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea is along 61W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N in the coastal areas of Guyana and Venezuela, and to the north from 16N-21N between 59W- 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland across Africa to 15N15W in Senegal. The ITCZ extends from 03N35W to 08N48W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave, scattered showers are noted along the boundaries. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the Gulf coastline between 86W-94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Further south, a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula extends from 15N90W to 21N88W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen entering the Bay from 18N-20N between 90W-93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across the basin. The stationary front will lift northward away from the Gulf as a warm front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure centered over the western Atlc will maintain tranquil conditions over the basin through Tue night. The next cold front will push into the northern Gulf waters on Wed, reach from near Ceder Key, Florida to near 26N90W and stationary to the lower Texas coast late Wed. The cold front will become stationary on Thu from near Fort Myers to near 26N90W and to near northeastern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure currently over central America expected to move across Central America and over the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this area of low pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for information about the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the southwest Caribbean and the tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean south of 18N and west of 74W. Broad low pressure over Central America will move WNW into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are likely mainly over the NW part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras tonight and Tue as a surface trough forms on the east side of the low pressure in that general area. Showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean are expected to persist through early Wed. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through late Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on T.D. Fifteen and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 30N72W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 27N60W to 21N62W. The wave along 61W is enhancing convection in the northern portion of the wave and near the trough from 21N-25N between 52W-58W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 33N35W. A weak pressure pattern will maintain quiescent conditions through Tue night. Moderate to strong SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold front. This cold front will reach the far NW part of the area Wed evening, then extend from near 31N75W to Cape Canaveral late Wed night, then from near 31N73W to Stuart, Florida early Thu. The front will weaken as it reaches from near 31N64W to 27N73W Fri, then the front will dissipate W of 65W. The area of fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front will lift N of the area Thu. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds behind the front Wed night will become gentle to moderate N to NE winds by Fri. $$ Torres