000 AXNT20 KNHC 141735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 135 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa is centered near 41.0N 51.4W at 14/1500 UTC or 350 nm SSE of Cape Race Newfoundland moving E at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the E semicircle of Melissa. Gale-force winds extend outward up to 91 nm, mainly to the southeast through southwest of the center. See the last NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A 1009 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean Sea near 16N85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm of the center, over Caribbean waters. This system is expected to move west-northwestward across Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...Tropical wave over Africa... A tropical wave is off the coast of w Africa from 18N18W to an embedded 1006 mb low near 12N19W to 04N19W. The wave is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N-19N between 11W-24W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm of the wave axis. This convection is showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west- northwestward to northwestward near the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. This system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic from 15N47W to an embedded 1011 mb low near 10N48W to 05N48W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N-15N between 43W-52W. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis along 61W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 07N23W to 04N30W. The ITCZ continues from 04N30W to 05N40W to 09N46W. The ITCX resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N51W to 06N58W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 23W-33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to 29N90W to SW Louisiana near 30N94W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Further S, a surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the NW Gulf near 26N97W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf. The stationary front will lift to the north of the area as a warm front this afternoon. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure centered east of northern Florida will maintain little change to winds and seas through Tue night. The next cold front will push into the northern Gulf waters on Wed, reach from near Ceder Key, Florida to near 26N90W and stationary to the lower Texas coast late Wed. The cold front will become stationary on Thu from near Fort Myers to near 26N90W and to near northeastern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure, that is currently over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is expected to to move across Central America and into the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this area of low pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the W Caribbean. Also refer to the tropical wave over the E Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 13N. The low over the western Caribbean will slowly move west- northwestward across Central America through Tue night and into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly over the northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras tonight into Tue as a surface trough forms on the east side of the low pressure in that general area. Showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean are expected to persist through early Wed. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through late Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A 1020 mb high is over the w Atlantic near 30N76W. A surface trough is N of the Leeward Islands from 26N59W to 21N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N-26N between 58W-63W. Elsewhere, a cold front is E of the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 26N17W. Over the W Atlantic, a weak pressure pattern will remain in place through Tue night maintaining little change to present conditions. Moderate to strong southwest winds will develop over northwest forecast waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold front. This cold front will reach the far northwest part of the area Wed evening, then reach from near 31N75W to Cape Canaveral late Wed night, from near 31N73W to Stuart, Florida early Thu and weaken as it reaches from near 31N64W to 27N73W, and stationary from there to West Palm Beach. The moderate to strong southwest ahead of the front will lift north of the area late on Wed. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are expected behind the front Wed night, becoming gentle to moderate north to northeast winds by Fri. $$ Formosa