000 AXNT20 KNHC 141012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 40.7N 54.0W at 14/0900 UTC, or 415 nm S of Cape Race Newfoundland, moving ENE at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen 200 nm from the center to the northeast. A faster east-northeast or east motion is expected later today and Tuesday. Weakening is expected, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today and dissipate in a day or so. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A 1010 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean Sea just east of Honduras, near 15N83W. This broad area of low pressure continues to support scattered heavy showers and strong tstms S of 20N W of 74W. The strong convection is concentrated to the east of the low from 10N-20N between 74W-80W, from the coast of Colombia north to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica and SE Cuba. This system is forecast to continue moving west-northwest across northern Honduras, southern Belize, and northern Guatemala, which should prevent tropical cyclone formation for the next couple of days. By Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little more conducive for some organization to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...Tropical wave over Africa... A broad area of low pressure is located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean just west of the west coast of Africa with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves west-northwest to northwestward near or northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Strong upper-level winds should prevent any further development by midweek. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today through Tuesday, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance for tropical development through the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis from 15N southward along 45W, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is well depicted in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection extend to 250 nm on either side of the wave north of 09N. A tropical wave analyzed with axis along 57W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is also depicted in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave in the Atlantic waters and a few showers near the Lee ward Islands to the U.S. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N16W in the coast of Africa to 05N31W to 09N43W. The ITCZ is from 07N50W to 07N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 46W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the low eastward to 30N85W to northeast Texas near 29N94W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the boundary. To the south in the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is seen along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. No significant convection is seen near the trough axis. In the Bay of Campeche, scattered showers are noted west of 92W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds across most of the basin. The stationary front will lift to the north of the area as a warm front today. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure centered east of northern Florida will maintain little change to winds and seas through Tue night. The next cold front will push into the northern Gulf waters on Wed, reach from near Ceder Key, Florida to near 26N90W and stationary to the lower Texas coast late Wed. The cold front will become stationary on Thu from near Fort Myers to near 26N90W and to near northeastern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure, that is currently over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, is expected to to move across Central America and into the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany this area of low pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the W Caribbean. Fair weather prevails across the eastern half of the basin mainly east of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will slowly move west-northwestward across Central America through Tue night and into the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are likely mainly over the northwest part of the Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras tonight into Tue as a surface trough forms on the east side of the low pressure in that general area. Showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean are expected to persist through early Wed. A tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through late Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Melissa and the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface trough extends across the west-central Atlantic from near 30N58W to 23N63W to 22N74W near the SE Bahamas. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the trough axis west of 66W. Farther east, a second surface trough extends from 26N57W to 21N61W is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N-25N between 66W-69W. In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 32N12W to 23N30W to 28N47W. There is no deep convection associated with this front at this time. A weak pressure pattern will remain in place through Tue night maintaining little change to present conditions. Moderate to strong southwest winds will develop over northwest forecast waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold front. This cold front will reach the far northwest part of the area Wed evening, then reach from near 31N75W to Cape Canaveral late Wed night, from near 31N73W to Stuart, Florida early Thu and weaken as it reaches from near 31N64W to 27N73W, and stationary from there to West Palm Beach. The moderate to strong southwest ahead of the front will lift north of the area late on Wed. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are expected behind the front Wed night, becoming gentle to moderate north to northeast winds by Fri. $$ MMTorres