000 AXNT20 KNHC 130601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 201 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.6N 64.0W at 13/0300 UTC, or 415 nm S of Halifax Nova Scotia, moving E at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered showers are noted north of 37N-40N between 60W-63W. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so, and Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday or Sunday night. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A stationary front extends from the northern Gulf near 28N88W to 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Gales winds continue W of the front along the western Gulf tonight. Scatterometer data depicted gale force northerly winds over the W Gulf waters within 90 nm of the coast of Mexico between 19N-25N. Seas will range between 10-16 ft. The front will begin to weaken tonight into early Sun when it is expected to dissipate. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A 1008 mb surface low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 09N81W. The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this weekend through early next week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 16N39W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 10N39W to 01N40W, moving W at 10 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low and over the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 06N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W, from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N39W. The ITCZ extends west of the tropical wave from 07N43W to 06N54W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-04N between 28W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and north of the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 42W-55W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the forecast Gale Warning currently in effect. A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to 28N88W, then transitions to a stationary front to 24N92W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted along and west of the front from 18N-24N between 93W-96W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, with gentle to moderate easterly winds. The front will begin to weaken Sun and is expected to dissipate by Mon. Gales W of the front near Veracruz will end by Sun morning. Elsewhere, high pressure NE of the Gulf will promote quiescent conditions through Tue. On Wed, a much weaker cold front will push E across the northern Gulf of Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the SW Caribbean. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. The Pacific monsoon trough extends from Colombia westward across the SW Caribbean into northern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the southern Caribbean mainly south of 17N and west of 75W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate trades across most of the basin, except the south-central area where locally fresh winds are noted between 70W-82W. A broad low pressure area just N of Panama will slowly move WNW through Central America during the next few days. Fresh to strong trade winds are likely over the western Caribbean and waters adjacent to Central America Mon and Tue. There is a low chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone before it exits the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Tropical Storm Melissa and tropical waves moving across the basin. A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N59W to 27N62W, then becomes stationary from that point to 22N74 in the Central Bahamas and continues across the Straits of Florida to 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front mainly S of 25N between 75W-82W. To the east, a pair of 1012 mb surface lows are analyzed near 18N62W and 26N56W. A surface trough is connecting these lows. Scattered showers are noted within the low centers. Another cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 28N32W to 30N43W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A stationary front near the Florida Keys is beginning to weaken and will dissipate by Mon. High pressure north of the front will promote quiescent conditions through Tue. On Wed, moderate to strong SW winds will develop east of Florida ahead of the next cold front. Large N swell generated by Subtropical Storm Melissa well north of the area are beginning to decay. This will allow seas E of the Bahamas to subside below 8 ft Sun. No new tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. $$ MMTorres