570 AXNT20 KNHC 121740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 140 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.1N 67.0W at 12/1500 UTC or 230 nm SE of Nantucket Massachusetts moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection convection is from 37N-40N between 65W-67W. On the forecast track, Melissa will continue to move away from the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts. Melissa is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A cold front over the NW Gulf extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz Mexico. Gale force northerly winds are forecast for the SW Gulf of Mexico within the area bounded by 19N95W to 19N96W to 20N97W to 20N95W to 19N95W, on 13/0000 UTC. Seas will be 9-11 ft. The gale is forecast to last six hours. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Heavy rainfall event for Central America... A 1008 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 11.5N81W. The low is forecast to move WNW toward Central America early next week, and some development is possible if the low moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea near the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Regardless of development, this system could bring heavy rains to portions of Central America late this weekend through early next week. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 17N35W to an embedded 1012 mb low near 11N38W to 02N38W, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in satellite imagery and model guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 08N- 20N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 11N14W to 06N22W to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-10N between 08W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 18W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the forecast Gale Warning. A cold front extends from the eastern Florida Panhandle near 31N87W to 27N92W to near Veracruz Mexico at 19N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere isolated moderate convection is over the Straits of Florida. The cold front will reach the Bay of Campeche later today, become stationary, then dissipate by Mon. N gales are briefly expected behind the front in the waters near Veracruz this afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure northeast of the Gulf will promote quiescent conditions through Tue. On Wed, a new, but, weaker cold front will push eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico. No tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days over the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America and the SW Caribbean. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. The Pacific monsoon trough extends from Colombia westward across the SW Caribbean Sea into northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection covers the SW Caribbean mainly south of 16N and west of 68W. The SW Caribbean low near 11.5N81W will move west-northwestward into Central America through early next week. Fresh to strong tradewinds are likely in the western Caribbean and offshore waters of Central America Mon and Tue from this system. There is a low chance that this system could become a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean by early next week. Elsewhere weak winds and low seas prevail over the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the Sub-Tropical Storm Melissa and tropical waves moving across the basin. A western Atlantic cold front extends from 31N61W to 26N66W. A stationary front continues to 24N70W to the Bahamas near 24N78W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front N of 27N. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Two 1012 mb lows are N of the Caribbean near 24N56W and 22N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 19N-23N between 58W-63W. Another cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N27W to 31N34W to beyond 32N40W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 26N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 21N-30N between 46W-56W. The western Atlantic front will gradually dissipate by Mon. High pressure north of the front will promote quiescent conditions through Tue. On Wed, moderate to strong SW winds will develop east of Florida ahead of the next cold front. Subtropical Storm Melissa well north of the area is generating large N swell over a large portion of the western Atlantic. These high seas will gradually diminish by Sun night. No new tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several days. $$ Formosa