000 AXNT20 KNHC 111753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 152 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Melissa is centered near 38.5N 69.6W at 11/1500 UTC or 170 nm S of Nantucket Massachusetts moving SSW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A strong band north of the center is producing scattered moderate convection from 39N-40N between 67W-71W. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale force northerly winds are expected along the Mexican coastal waters beginning early Sat morning. Winds will diminish across the area Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall event expected for Central America: A 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N82W. As the low tracks westward toward Central America by early next week it is likely to be associated with a Central American gyre. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Early next week, the heavy rain will continue in those locations and spread northwestward to the rest of Central America as well as southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 19N30W to 03N30W, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is where the wave axis intersects the ITCZ from 03N-13N between 27W-31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W from 09N- 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern portion of the wave from 18N- 23N between 47W- 53W. scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 03N- 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 07N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 10N61W. besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 02N-08N between 07W-21W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 11/1500 UTC a cold front has reached the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the coasts of Texas and Louisiana N of 27N. 20-25 kt northerly winds are N of this front. A temperature drop of 20 degree is also noted. Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over the SE Gulf of Mexico and the Straits of Florida. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi delta to Veracruz by Sat afternoon. The front will become stationary on Sun from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds can be expected behind the front along the Tamaulipas Coast tonight, then over the waters near Veracruz Sat afternoon. Winds will diminish across the entire area Sun night as high pressure north of the area slides eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection covers the Caribbean Sea south of 15N between 74W- 84W. Scattered moderate convection is also along the coasts of N Venezuela and N Colombia. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will move into Central America this afternoon. Fresh to strong trades, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail east of the wave across the south-central and western Caribbean. Long period N to NE swell will slowly decay across the Atlc waters and Caribbean passages through tonight. Broad low pres may develop across the SW Caribbean this weekend, then persist into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N62W to 25N70W to 23N78W. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 61W-65W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Two 1010 mb lows are N of the Caribbean near 22N63W and 22N57W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 20N-23N between 57W-64W. A 1022 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 33N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered near 25N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N- 28N between 43W-57W. A weakening cold front extending from 29N65W to 26N70W to just SW of Andros Island will push slowly SE for the next few days and dissipate W of 70W by Sun. High pressure behind the front will induce fresh NE winds NW of the front. Subtropical Storm Melissa well north of the area will continue to generate large N swell over a large portion of the western Atlantic through Sat. The swell will then slowly subside Sat night and Sun. $$ Formosa