000 AXNT20 KNHC 111111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 711 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale force northerly winds are expected along the Mexican coastal waters beginning early Sat morning. Winds will diminish across the area Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Heavy rainfall event expected for Central America: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. As the broad low tracks westward toward Central America by early next week, the low is likely to contribute to the formation of a Central American gyre. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall is likely across Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and eastern portions of Nicaragua and Honduras. Early next week, the heavy rain will continue in those locations and spread northwestward to the rest of Central America as well as southern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 20N28W to 02N30W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave axis intersects the ITCZ. Isolated moderate convection is near the wave from 15N-17N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 47/48W from 09N-21N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along and west of the wave's axis from 10N-15N. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 85W from 03N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Scattered strong convection is seen from 09N-15N between 80W-84W. The northern end of a tropical wave along 93W extends to the southern Bay of Campeche and is spreading isolated light showers over the southern Bay of Campeche. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of southern Senegal near 13N17W to 09N21W to 06N34W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 07N50W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 29W-38W. Scattered showers are also seen from 10N-14N betwen 49W-62W. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid-level ridging covers the western Gulf of Mexico. Relatively dry air covers much of the basin, with only isolated showers in a few spots, including offshore of Louisiana. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SE winds near the coast of SE Louisiana north of 27N between 87W-91W. A cold front in SE Texas will move into the NW Gulf this afternoon, then reach from the Mississippi delta to Veracruz by Sat afternoon. The front will become stationary on Sun from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to minimal gale force northerly winds can be expected behind the front along the Mexican coastal waters Sat, then in the far SW Gulf waters near Veracruz Sat evening. Winds will diminish across the entire area Sun night as high pressure north of the area slides eastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the area south of 15N between 68W-84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over portions of NW Venezuela and Colombia. Some strong convection is moving into the E coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica now. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence in the area and by the tropical wave currently over Central America near 85W. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next week. Heavy rainfall is expected over Central America during the next several days. See the Special Features section above for more details. Long-period north to northeast swell will gradually decay across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 32N63W to 28N70W to 25N77W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are within 90 nm of the front. A trough connects two 1010 mb lows - one near 20N64W and the other near 22N58W. The low is more pronounced in the mid and upper- levels to the east, near 25N52W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 18N-24N between 50W-59W. Isolated moderate convection prevails elsewhere from 18N-24N between 49W-65W and from 25N-30N between 43W-54W. Surface high pressure ridging prevails across the eastern subtropical Atlantic. A weakening cold front extending from 30N65W into the Central Bahamas will become nearly stationary on Sat. High pressure behind the front will induce fresh northeast winds NW of the front. A large low pressure system well north of the area will continue to generate large northerly swell over a large portion of the western Atlantic through Sat. This swell will then slowly subside Sat night and Sun. $$ Hagen