061 AXNT20 KNHC 110556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri afternoon, then reach from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Sat afternoon. Behind the front, strong to gale force northerly winds are expected along the Mexican coastal waters on Sat. Winds will diminish across the area Sun morning. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis from 19N25W to 02N29W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave axis intersects the ITCZ. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 47W from 05N-18N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W from 04N-21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded in an area of deep layer moisture. Widespread light to moderate showers with isolated areas of moderate to strong convection prevails over the basin south of 19N and west of 79W. The northern end of a tropical wave along 92W is spreading showers over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of southern Senegal near 13N17W to 09N21W to 06N34W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 07N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the monsoon trough between 26W-39W. Scattered showers are also seen from 09N-13N betwen 50W-62W even though an ITCZ is not currently analyzed in that area. GULF OF MEXICO... Mid and upper-level ridging covers the western Gulf of Mexico. Relatively dry air covers much of the basin. The northern end of a westward moving tropical wave is producing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N-22N between 90W-92W. Elsewhere, scattered showers are from 23N-26N between 84W-87W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SE winds near the coast of SE Louisiana north of 27N between 87W-91W. A strong cold front will enter the western Gulf Fri afternoon through the weekend. Gale force winds are expected W of the front on Sat near the coast of Mexico. See the Special Features section above for more details on the gales. By Sun, the front will become stationary from the FL Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Winds will diminish across the entire area Sun night as high pressure north of the area slides eastward through early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave extends over the western Caribbean. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. TPW imagery depicts abundant moisture over the southern Caribbean and northern South America. With this, scattered moderate showers and tstorms prevail across the whole southern half of the basin south of 15N. The convection is being enhanced by upper-level divergence in the area and by the tropical wave currently over the basin near 84W. More clear conditions are present between 61W-76W and north of 15N. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, with gentle winds over the eastern and western portions of the basin. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. The system is forecast to move westward toward Honduras and Belize early next week. Atmospheric conditions across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, Colombia and Central America are forecast to continue being unstable through the weekend and into early next week. Therefore, the potential for copious amounts of rainfall is high during the time. Long-period north to northeast swell propagating through the central Atlantic will gradually decay across the area Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 32N64W to 27N71W to 25N77W. Isolated moderate showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1010 mb low is near 24N53W. The low is more pronounced in the mid and upper- levels that it is at the surface. A surface trough extends W from the low to 21N58W to 21N65W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 19N-23N between 52W-59W, strongest along and within 180 nm S of the trough. Isolated moderate convection prevails elsewhere from 19N-25N between 45W- 63W and from 25N-30N between 48W-54W. Another surface trough extends from a 1012 mb surface low near 32N55W to 28N54W. Surface high pressure ridging prevails across the eastern subtropical Atlantic. A cold front in the west Atlantic will become nearly stationary on Saturday from near 28N65W to 25N70W to the Straits of Florida. High pressure will build from the southeastern U.S. behind the front, with the resultant gradient leading to fresh northeast winds to the northwest of the front. A large low pressure system well north of the area will deepen through Fri and continue to generate large northwest to north swell over much of the western Atlantic through Sat. This swell will then begin to slowly subside later on Sat and through Sun. $$ Hagen