000 AXNT20 KNHC 091003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 603 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A small 1009 mb low is located about 220 nm south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina near 32N73W. While the latest ASCAT pass shows winds of 25-33 kt extending out to 75 nm in the southern semicircle, the associated thunderstorm activity is limited. Isolated moderate convection is from 30N-35N between 69W-73W. Although upper-level winds are not particularly favorable for additional development, this system still has a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm today. By tonight, the system is forecast to merge with a non-tropical low that is currently near 37N71W off the east coast of the United States. An occluded 1009 mb low is in the central Atlantic Ocean near 32N49W, or about 830 nm east of Bermuda. An occluded front curves away from the low center, reaching a triple point near 34N40W. A stationary front extends from 34N40W to 30N41W to 24N47W. The front continues as cold to 22N52W to 25N62W. The latest ASCAT pass shows a large area of 25-33 kt winds extending to beyond 300 nm from the center in the northern semicircle. Isolated moderate convection extends outward 300 nm in the NE quad and 360 nm SE quad. This system could still become a tropical or subtropical storm today while it moves slowly westward. However, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by tonight. Please read the High Seas Forecast listed under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 17/18W from 20N southward, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-19N between 13W-23W, and from 05N-08N between 23W-28W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 21N40W to 16N38W to 06N37W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-22N between 35W-40W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 300 nm to the west of the wave axis from 14N-19N, while isolated moderate convection prevails within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 12N-14N. A large area of numerous moderate to strong convection prevails inland over N Colombia and over the waters of the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N between 72W-78.5W. Isolated showers are elsewhere from 05N-20N between 68W-78.5W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W from 20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N-20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through The Gambia near 13N17W to 11N27W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N46W to 09N60W. Isolated moderate convection is along and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 40W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 28.5N83W to 26N93W. A warm front continues from 26N93W to 28N97W. A surface trough extends from 21N90W to 25N85.5W to Lake Okeechobee Florida. Relatively dry air prevails north and west of a line from 30N85.5W to 22N93W to 22N98W. To the south and east of that line and east of 91W, broken clouds along with isolated showers and tstorms prevail. Another surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche from 18N93W to 21N97W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is seen from 18N-21N between 92W-96W. The convection associated with both troughs over the southern Gulf of Mexico is being enhanced by weak upper-level divergence. The stationary front and weakening trough of low pressure will both gradually dissipate today. Until the front dissipates, moderate to fresh northeast winds can be expected to the north and west of the boundary. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Thu evening, then reach from along the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz Mexico Sat afternoon where it will become stationary. Behind this front, strong to near gale force northerly winds can be expected, especially Sat and Sat night. Some near gale force winds may persist offshore Veracruz into Sun, before all areas see diminishing winds Sun night and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. See section above for details. A surface trough over the SE Gulf of Mexico is enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms near the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the western Gulf of Honduras near the east coast of Belize. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to locally strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, to the east of 75W. The tropical wave along 82W will move into Central America later today. The tropical wave near 72W will reach the western Caribbean tonight, then slow down and traverse the western Caribbean through the remainder of the week, before reaching Central America on Saturday. Behind this wave, fresh to strong trade winds along with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected across the Central Caribbean today and tonight. Though gradually decaying into Thu, large north to northeast swell over the Atlantic will continue to affect area Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the two areas of low pressure that are being monitored for possible tropical development. A stationary front extends from 32N78W to Gainesville Florida to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Isolated to scattered showers are along and south of the front. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong N to NE winds to the north of the front. Two surface troughs are located to the SE of the front. The first trough extends from a 1009 mb low near 32N73W to West Palm Beach Florida to Ft. Myers. The second trough extends from 31N73W to the Bahamas near 25N77W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 25N- 31N between 70W-79W. The stationary front will become a cold front again today, moving SE and merging with the first surface trough. The remnant front will then push slowly east while weakening, reaching the NW Bahamas tonight, central Bahamas Thu night, then stretch from near 24N70W to 29N65W by Fri night. In the wake of this front, seas north and northeast of the Bahamas may reach 8 to 10 ft Fri and Sat. A stationary front extends from 34N40W to 30N41W to 24N47W. The front continues as cold to 22N52W to 25N62W. Isolated showers are near the front west of 50W. Scattered moderate showers are near the front east of 50W. $$ Hagen