000 AXNT20 KNHC 090005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A non-tropical 1011 mb low pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocea, near 32N47W, about 910 nm to the east of Bermuda. Winds to gale-force, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, are within 360 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. An occluded front curves away from the low center, reaching the triple point near 33N41W. The cold front extends from 33N41W to 30N42W, 23N50W, and 25N58W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 25N58W to 27N65W and 30N69W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 60 nm on either side of the cold front to 23N48W, and within 60 nm on either side of 23N48W 21N53W 23N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 180 nm to the north of the dissipating stationary front from 66W westward. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is medium. Please read the High Seas Forecast, listed under the WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2, or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving W 5 to 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong, about 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 07N to 11N. Isolated moderate elsewhere, from 13N southward, between 09W and 30W. It is possible that some of the precipitation may be more related to the monsoon trough than to the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 15N to 18N between 33W and 37W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm to the west of the wave, from 10N to 12N, in NW Venezuela, between the tropical wave and Lake Maracaibo. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N. A second Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 120 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 12N to 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 17N16W, to 15N20W 11N26W 10N33W 11N36W, and 09N39W. The ITCZ continues from 09N39W, to 08N43W and 09N61W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 46W westward. GULF OF MEXICO... One surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 27N80W, into the SE Gulf of Mexico, and to the northern sections of the Yucatan Peninsula. A second surface trough, from NW-to- SE, extends from 23N97W to 18N93W at the coast of Mexico. A cold front cuts across the Gulf of Mexico, through NE Florida, to 27N90W, beyond the Mexico Gulf coast near 24N97W. Precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong in the Straits of Florida. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 27N southward. The current SE Gulf of Mexico surface trough will move slowly NW through tonight. The current Gulf of Mexico cold front will move slowly southward through early Wednesday, and become stationary along 26N/27N through Thursday. Moderate to fresh northeast winds behind the front will persist into Wednesday before diminishing. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Friday night, and reach from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico on Saturday afternoon, and become stationary Saturday night. The front will be followed by strong to near gale force northerly winds Saturday and Saturday night, and by strong northwest winds along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz early on Sun, diminishing to mainly moderate to fresh winds on Sunday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea between 66W and 78W. A tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 22N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm to the west of the wave, from 10N to 12N, in NW Venezuela, between the tropical wave and Lake Maracaibo. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave from 13N to 20N. The southernmost part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. A second tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 20N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N northward from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between northern Colombia, and beyond NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 12N southward from 75W westward. Scattered to numerous strong in the coastal plains/coastal waters of Colombia from 10N to 12N between 73W and 76W. A tropical wave along 69W will move through the basin, and reach the W Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Fresh to strong tradewinds, and very active weather, will follow behind the wave, from today through Wednesday. Large N-NE swell in the central Atlantic Ocean, will continue to impact the area waters, and move through the Caribbean Sea passages through Wednesday, then gradually subside during the latter half of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough passes through 32N75W to a 1011 mb low pressure center, that is near 30N77W. The surface trough continues to the coast of Florida, near and beyond 27N80W. The trough continues into the SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the west of the line that passes through 32N70W to 22N70W at the coast of Cuba. The wind speeds and the sea heights will begin to diminish to the north of the current central Atlantic Ocean cold front/ dissipating stationary front, tonight, as the pressure gradient there slackens. The current western Atlantic Ocean low pressure center and surface trough, off the coast of Florida, will move northeastward through Wed night. A cold front from near 31N80W to inland northeastern Florida will approach the NW Bahamas on Wed, then reach the central Bahamas Thu and Thu night and become stationary from near 28N65W to central Bahamas and to northern Cuba late Fri through Sun night as high pressure slides eastward just to the north of the area. $$ mt