000 AXNT20 KNHC 081751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 151 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A non-tropical 1010 mb low pressure system located over the central Atlantic, near 32N45W, between Bermuda and the Azores is producing winds to gale force. The occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 33N42W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 29N42W to 22N49W to 24N58W. A weakening stationary front extends eastward to 34N35W. There are no gales occurring south of 31N in the S semicircle. However, gales to 35 kt are occurring in portions of the northern semicircle north of 31N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 30N and extends 300 nm NE of the low pressure, from 29N-37N between 34W-48W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm later today or early Wednesday while it moves slowly westward. As the low moves W during the next 48 hours, expect any gales to be confined to areas north of 31N in the northern semicircle. Upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for further development by Wed evening. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please see the High Seas Forecast product under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 15W from 19N southward along the coast of Africa, moving W at 5-10 kt. This position was shifted eastward by 2 degrees from the previous map because new data and satellite imagery indicate the tropical wave is still inland over West Africa. Model diagnostics indicate the wave's location well. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 03N-13N between 08W-21W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from 20N southward, moving W around 10 kt. TPW imagery and model guidance depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted from 14N-18N between 32W-36W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W from 21N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 12N-18N between 64W-75W, including south of the Mona Passage. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 78W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen where the wave meets the East Pacific monsoon trough from 04N-13N between 76W-82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through Mauritania near 17N16W to 11N29W to 08N39W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate convection is over the eastern Atlantic from 04N-12N between 18W-20W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is along and within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 51W- 61W, including the Windward Islands. GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft. Myers Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms are seen near the FL Keys, western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel. A separate surface trough is over the SW Gulf from 18N93W to 22N97W. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-23N between 91W-97W. A cold front extends across the Gulf of Mexico from the Panhandle of Florida near 28N89W to south of the Rio Grande River near 25N97W. It continues inland as a stationary front. A trough extending from near Ft Meyers, Florida SW to the NE tip of the Yucatan will lift slowly NW through tonight. A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Mexican coast will sink slowly S through early Wed and stall along 26N-27N through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds behind the front will persist into Wed before diminishing. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri night and reach from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to Veracruz, Mexico Sat afternoon, accompanied by strong to near gale force winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... See section above for details on two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea. An elongated surface trough extends from Cancun Mexico to Ft. Myers Florida. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered moderate convection is from eastern and central Caribbean near 12N-17N between 68W-71W. The ASCAT pass from late Monday evening shows fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean. A tropical wave along 68W will move through the basin and reach the W Caribbean Thu. Fresh to strong tradewinds and very active weather will follow behind the wave today through Wed. Large N-NE swell across the regional Atlc will continue to impact the area waters and move through the Caribbean passages through Wed, then gradually subside during the latter half of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the system that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on two tropical waves currently over the tropical Atlantic. A 1011 mb surface low is near 32N77W. A surface trough extends from that low across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper-level diffluence and divergence east of Florida is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 26N-79N between 73W-79W. The low near 28N80W may strengthen slightly today and produce fresh to locally strong winds before it merges into the low near 32N75W by Wed. A non-tropical 1010 mb low pressure system located over the central Atlantic, near 32N45W, between Bermuda and the Azores is producing winds to gale force. The occluded front extends from the low to a triple point near 33N42W. A cold front extends from the triple point to 29N42W to 22N49W to 24N58W. A weakening stationary front extends from 24N58W to 30N68W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen 100 to 150 nm South of the boundary. North of the front, strong SE winds and high seas will prevail today. Winds and seas will begin to diminish there tonight as the pressure gradient relaxes. A surface trough over the NW Bahamas and S Florida extends SW into the SE Gulf of Mexico this morning. This trough will lift northeast and may organize into low pressure north of the Bahamas tonight or Tue, before moving NE and away from the area. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation with this low until it merges with a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight and approach the NW Bahamas on Wed. The front will then stall and weaken over the Bahamas for the latter half of the week. $$ MMTorres